11.4 Middle East and North Africa

The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region sits at the crossroads of some of the most consequential dynamics in international relations: resource competition, territorial disputes, sectarian identity, and great-power rivalry. Understanding this region is essential because events here ripple outward, shaping global energy markets, migration patterns, and security policy far beyond the region's borders.

Regional Conflicts

Arab Spring and Its Aftermath

In late 2010, a Tunisian street vendor named Mohammed Bouazizi set himself on fire to protest police harassment and economic despair. That single act of desperation triggered a wave of mass protests that swept across the MENA region, collectively known as the Arab Spring.

Protests spread rapidly to Egypt, Libya, Syria, Yemen, Bahrain, and beyond. The core grievances were similar across countries: authoritarian rule, corruption, high unemployment, and deep economic inequality. The outcomes, however, varied dramatically:

• Tunisia overthrew its dictator and eventually adopted a new constitution, becoming the Arab Spring's most cited success story (though its democracy has since eroded).
• Egypt ousted President Mubarak in 2011, but a brief democratic experiment ended with a military coup in 2013 that brought President el-Sisi to power.
• Libya descended into civil war after the NATO-backed overthrow of Muammar Gaddafi, and rival governments competed for control for years afterward.
• Syria spiraled into a devastating civil war (covered below).
• Bahrain and other Gulf states suppressed protests with security forces and, in Bahrain's case, military assistance from Saudi Arabia.

The Arab Spring showed how quickly authoritarian regimes can lose legitimacy, but also how difficult democratic transitions are when institutions are weak and sectarian or tribal divisions run deep.

Israeli-Palestinian Conflict and Peace Efforts

This is one of the longest-running conflicts in modern international relations. Its roots trace to the early 20th century, when the Zionist movement sought to establish a Jewish homeland in Palestine, a territory then under Ottoman and later British control. Arab inhabitants opposed large-scale Jewish immigration, and competing national claims to the same land set the stage for decades of conflict.

Key turning points include:

• 1948 Arab-Israeli War: Fought immediately after Israel declared independence. Israel won, but hundreds of thousands of Palestinians were displaced (an event Palestinians call the Nakba, or "catastrophe").
• 1967 Six-Day War: Israel captured the West Bank, Gaza Strip, Sinai Peninsula, and Golan Heights, creating the "occupied territories" issue that persists today.
• 1973 Yom Kippur War: Egypt and Syria launched a surprise attack on Israel. The war eventually led to the Camp David Accords (1978), where Egypt became the first Arab state to recognize Israel.
• 1993 Oslo Accords: Established the Palestinian Authority and created a framework for negotiations toward a two-state solution.

Core unresolved issues include the status of Jerusalem (claimed as a capital by both sides), Israeli settlements in the West Bank, the right of return for Palestinian refugees, and borders for a potential Palestinian state.

Recent developments have shifted the landscape. The Abraham Accords (2020) normalized relations between Israel and several Arab states (UAE, Bahrain, Sudan, Morocco), bypassing the Palestinian issue rather than resolving it. The U.S. recognized Jerusalem as Israel's capital in 2017, a move that angered Palestinians and many in the international community. A two-state solution remains the most widely discussed framework for peace, but political divisions on both sides and continued settlement expansion make it increasingly difficult to achieve.

Syrian Civil War and Regional Instability

What began in 2011 as peaceful protests against President Bashar al-Assad's authoritarian government quickly escalated into a multi-sided civil war. The conflict became a proxy battlefield for regional and global powers:

• Russia and Iran backed the Assad regime with military support, airstrikes, and ground forces (including Iran-backed Hezbollah fighters from Lebanon).
• Turkey supported various rebel groups and also intervened against Kurdish forces in northern Syria.
• The U.S. and Western allies provided limited support to certain rebel factions and led airstrikes against ISIS (the Islamic State), which seized large swaths of territory in Syria and Iraq between 2014 and 2017.

The humanitarian toll has been staggering. Over 500,000 people were killed, and more than 12 million Syrians were displaced, roughly half the country's pre-war population. Millions fled to neighboring countries (especially Turkey, Lebanon, and Jordan) and to Europe, fueling a major refugee crisis that reshaped European politics.

ISIS was largely defeated militarily by 2019, but the underlying conflict remained unresolved for years. Assad's regime held power with Russian and Iranian backing until late 2024, when a rapid rebel offensive led to his ouster and flight from the country.

Terrorism and Counterterrorism Efforts

The MENA region has been central to global terrorism concerns, particularly since the September 11, 2001 attacks carried out by al-Qaeda. Major groups that have operated in the region include:

• Al-Qaeda: Founded by Osama bin Laden, responsible for 9/11 and numerous other attacks. Bin Laden was killed by U.S. special forces in Pakistan in 2011.
• ISIS (Islamic State): Emerged from al-Qaeda's Iraqi branch, declared a "caliphate" in 2014 across parts of Iraq and Syria, and inspired attacks worldwide before losing its territory.

Counterterrorism efforts have taken many forms:

1. Military operations: The U.S.-led "War on Terror" included invasions of Afghanistan (2001) and Iraq (2003), plus extensive drone strike campaigns.
2. Intelligence sharing: Cooperation between Western and regional intelligence agencies to track and disrupt terrorist networks.
3. Deradicalization programs: Efforts in countries like Saudi Arabia to rehabilitate former extremists and counter radical ideologies.

A persistent challenge is addressing the root causes of extremism, including political repression, economic marginalization, and sectarian grievances, without which military solutions alone tend to be insufficient. Balancing security measures with civil liberties remains a tension point in both the region and in Western democracies.

Geopolitical Alliances

Arab League and Regional Cooperation

The Arab League (formally the League of Arab States) was founded in 1945 to promote political, economic, and cultural cooperation among Arab countries. It has 22 member states spanning from Morocco to Iraq.

The League has served as a forum for coordinating positions on shared concerns, most notably the Palestinian cause, and for mediating inter-Arab disputes. In practice, though, its effectiveness has been limited by the divergent interests of its members. Wealthy Gulf monarchies, revolutionary republics, and fragile states often have conflicting priorities.

A notable action was the League's suspension of Syria's membership in 2011 in response to the Assad regime's violent crackdown on protesters (Syria was readmitted in 2023). The League also works on counterterrorism coordination, economic integration, and cultural preservation, though critics argue it lacks enforcement mechanisms and often fails to act decisively during crises.

Gulf Cooperation Council and Economic Integration

The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) was established in 1981 by six Gulf monarchies: Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain, and Oman. Its original purpose was partly a collective security response to the Iranian Revolution (1979) and the Iran-Iraq War.

The GCC has achieved meaningful economic integration, including a customs union and steps toward a common market. Its members collectively hold enormous oil and gas reserves, giving the bloc outsized influence in global energy markets.

Internal unity has been tested, however. The most dramatic example was the 2017 Qatar diplomatic crisis, when Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Bahrain, and Egypt severed ties with Qatar, accusing it of supporting terrorism and being too close to Iran. The blockade lasted over three years before being resolved in early 2021.

The GCC also coordinates on defense, counterterrorism, and relations with Iran, which all six members view with varying degrees of suspicion.

US-Saudi Relations and Strategic Partnerships

The U.S.-Saudi relationship is one of the most significant bilateral partnerships in the region, built on a basic exchange: the U.S. provides security guarantees and arms sales, and Saudi Arabia helps stabilize global oil markets and serves as a counterweight to Iranian influence.

This alliance has faced recurring strain:

• Fifteen of the nineteen 9/11 hijackers were Saudi nationals, raising questions about the kingdom's role in fostering extremism.
• Saudi Arabia's human rights record, including the 2018 murder of journalist Jamal Khashoggi by Saudi agents, has drawn international condemnation.
• The Saudi-led military intervention in Yemen's civil war (beginning in 2015) caused a severe humanitarian crisis and drew criticism of U.S. arms sales.

The relationship is also evolving structurally. Growing U.S. energy independence (thanks to shale oil production) has reduced America's dependence on Saudi oil. Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia's Vision 2030 plan aims to diversify its economy away from oil dependence, and the kingdom has expanded diplomatic ties with China and other powers, signaling a more multipolar approach to its foreign relations.

Energy and Economy

OPEC and Global Oil Markets

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) was founded in 1960 and currently has 12 member states (as of 2024), many of them in the Middle East. OPEC's primary tool is setting production quotas for its members, which directly influences global oil supply and, by extension, prices.

When OPEC cuts production, oil prices tend to rise; when it increases production, prices tend to fall. This gives the organization significant geopolitical leverage, particularly during crises.

OPEC's dominance has been challenged in recent years by:

• U.S. shale oil production, which made the U.S. one of the world's top oil producers.
• The global push toward renewable energy and electric vehicles, which threatens long-term demand for oil.

In response, OPEC formed the OPEC+ alliance with Russia and other non-member producers to coordinate production more broadly and maintain market influence. OPEC+ decisions on output levels remain closely watched by governments and markets worldwide.

Iran Nuclear Deal and Economic Sanctions

The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), signed in 2015 between Iran and the P5+1 (the five permanent UN Security Council members plus Germany), was a landmark nonproliferation agreement. Here's how it worked:

1. Iran agreed to limit its uranium enrichment to levels unsuitable for weapons and to allow international inspections of its nuclear facilities.
2. In exchange, the U.S., EU, and UN lifted or eased economic sanctions that had severely damaged Iran's economy.

The deal unraveled when the U.S. withdrew in 2018 under the Trump administration and reimposed sanctions, arguing the deal didn't go far enough in addressing Iran's ballistic missile program and regional activities. Iran responded by gradually exceeding the deal's enrichment limits.

Efforts to revive or renegotiate the agreement have stalled. Meanwhile, sanctions continue to weigh heavily on Iran's economy, limiting its oil exports and access to global financial systems. The JCPOA saga illustrates a core tension in international relations: how to balance nonproliferation goals, economic leverage, and regional security interests when major powers disagree on strategy.

Religious and Sectarian Divisions

Sunni-Shia Divide and Its Geopolitical Implications

The Sunni-Shia split is the oldest and most consequential division within Islam. It originated in a 7th-century dispute over who should succeed the Prophet Muhammad as leader of the Muslim community. Sunnis accepted the elected caliphs, while Shias believed leadership should have passed to Ali, Muhammad's cousin and son-in-law.

Today, Sunnis make up roughly 85-90% of the world's Muslims. Shias are the majority in Iran, Iraq, and Bahrain, with significant populations in Lebanon, Yemen, and parts of the Gulf states.

The divide matters for IR because it maps onto major geopolitical rivalries:

• Saudi Arabia (Sunni-majority, led by a Sunni monarchy) and Iran (Shia-majority, led by a Shia theocracy) are the two main regional powers, and their competition plays out across the region.
• In Syria, the Assad regime (from the Alawite minority, a Shia offshoot) received Iranian and Hezbollah support, while Sunni-majority rebel groups received Gulf state backing.
• In Yemen, the Houthi movement (Zaydi Shia) has fought against a Saudi-backed, internationally recognized government.
• In Lebanon, the Shia militant group Hezbollah wields enormous political and military power alongside Sunni, Christian, and Druze factions.
• In Iraq, post-2003 politics have been shaped by tensions between the Shia majority, Sunni minority, and Kurdish population.

It's important not to reduce every conflict in the region to a Sunni-Shia binary. Sectarian identity intersects with ethnicity, nationalism, economic grievances, and great-power competition. Many conflicts that appear sectarian on the surface are driven as much by political power struggles and resource competition as by religious differences. Still, the Sunni-Shia divide remains a powerful mobilizing force that regional actors frequently exploit.