ap stats study guides

โœŒ๏ธย  Unit 2 - Exploring Two-Variable Data

โš–๏ธย  Unit 6 - Inference for Categorical Data: Proportions

๐Ÿ˜ผย  Unit 7 - Inference for Qualitative Data: Means

โœณ๏ธย  Unit 8 Inference for Categorical Data: Chi-Square

๐Ÿ“ˆย  Unit 9 - Inference for Quantitative Data: Slopes

๐Ÿงย  Multiple Choice Questions (MCQs)

4.2 Estimating Probabilities Using Simulation

#anticipatingpatterns

#statisticalinference

โฑ๏ธย ย 2 min read

written by

kanya shah


Make sure you know how to conduct a simulation with several trials and calculate probabilities from the resulting data.ย ย 

A random process yields results that are determined by chance. An outcome is the result from a trial of a random process. An event is defined as a bunch of overall outcomes.ย 

Probability๐Ÿ“ถ is defined as a numerical outcome between 0-1 of a chance process, that describes the proportion of times the outcome would occur in a very long series of repetitions. Chance behavior is unpredictable in the short run but has a regular and predictable pattern in the long run. The law of large numbers says that in many repetitions of the same chance process, the simulated probability gets closer to the true probability as more trials are run. The relative frequency of observations from a simulation can be used to find the probability of that outcome.

๐ŸŽฅWatch: AP Stats - Probability Rules and Random Variables

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๐Ÿคทโ€โ™‚๏ธ What is a simulation?ย 

It is the imitation of chance behavior, based on a model that accurately reflects the situation. Hereโ€™s the process of conducting a simulation:ย 

  1. Describe how to use a chance device to imitate one trial (repetition) of the simulation. State what youโ€™ll record at the end of each trial.ย 

  2. Perform many trials of the simulation.ย 

  3. Use the results of your simulation to answer the question of interest.ย 

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