🪩Intro to Comparative Politics Unit 8 – Electoral Systems and Voting Behavior

Key Concepts and Definitions

• Electoral systems are the rules and procedures that govern how votes are cast, counted, and translated into seats in representative bodies
• Voting behavior refers to the factors and processes that influence how individuals decide to vote in elections
• Proportional representation (PR) systems aim to allocate seats in proportion to the share of votes received by each party
• Majoritarian systems, such as first-past-the-post (FPTP), award seats to the candidate or party with the most votes in each district
• Duverger's law suggests that FPTP systems tend to favor two-party systems, while PR systems encourage multi-party systems
• Rational choice theory posits that voters make decisions based on a calculation of costs and benefits
• Sociological theory emphasizes the role of social groups and identities in shaping voting behavior
• Party identification refers to a voter's psychological attachment to a particular political party

Types of Electoral Systems

• Plurality systems, such as FPTP, where the candidate with the most votes wins, even without a majority
  • Used in countries like the United States, United Kingdom, and Canada
• Majority systems, such as two-round systems (TRS), require a candidate to win an absolute majority of votes
  • If no candidate achieves a majority in the first round, a second round is held between the top two candidates (France)
• PR systems, which allocate seats based on the proportion of votes received by each party
  • List PR systems, where voters choose from party lists (Spain, Israel)
  • Mixed-member proportional (MMP) systems combine FPTP and PR elements (Germany, New Zealand)
• Single transferable vote (STV) systems, where voters rank candidates in multi-member districts (Ireland, Malta)
• Mixed systems, which combine elements of majoritarian and PR systems
  • Parallel systems, where majoritarian and PR components operate independently (Japan, Russia)

Voting Behavior Theories

• Rational choice theory assumes that voters make decisions based on self-interest and the perceived costs and benefits of each choice
  • Voters consider factors such as the economy, policy positions, and candidate qualities
• Sociological theory emphasizes the role of social groups and identities in shaping voting behavior
  • Class, religion, ethnicity, and region can influence voting patterns
• Party identification theory suggests that voters develop psychological attachments to parties, which can be a strong predictor of voting behavior
  • Party loyalty can be influenced by family, socialization, and past voting experiences
• Issue voting theory posits that voters make decisions based on their positions on specific policy issues
  • Salience of issues can vary across elections and individuals
• Retrospective voting theory suggests that voters evaluate the past performance of incumbents when deciding how to vote
  • Economic conditions and foreign policy successes or failures can be important factors

Factors Influencing Voter Choice

• Party identification and loyalty can be a strong predictor of voting behavior
• Candidate characteristics, such as charisma, experience, and perceived competence, can influence voter choice
  • Media coverage and campaign events can shape perceptions of candidates
• Economic conditions, such as growth, unemployment, and inflation, can affect voter evaluations of incumbents
  • Pocketbook voting refers to the influence of personal financial situations on voting behavior
• Issue positions and policy preferences can be important factors, especially for highly engaged and informed voters
  • Wedge issues, such as abortion or immigration, can be particularly divisive
• Social group identities, such as class, religion, and ethnicity, can shape voting patterns
  • Group-based appeals and mobilization efforts can influence turnout and vote choice
• Campaign events, media coverage, and political advertising can shape voter perceptions and preferences
  • Negative campaigning and attack ads can have complex effects on voter choice

Electoral System Effects on Politics

• FPTP systems tend to favor two-party systems and produce more stable single-party governments
  • But they can lead to disproportional outcomes and underrepresentation of smaller parties
• PR systems encourage multi-party systems and coalition governments
  • They can provide more proportional representation but may lead to political fragmentation and instability
• Electoral systems can influence campaign strategies and party behavior
  • FPTP systems incentivize broad-based, centrist appeals, while PR systems allow for more ideologically diverse parties
• Ballot structure and voting rules can affect voter behavior and outcomes
  • Closed-list PR systems give more power to parties, while open-list systems allow voters to choose individual candidates
• Electoral thresholds and district magnitude can shape the representation of smaller parties
  • Higher thresholds and smaller districts can disadvantage minor parties
• Electoral systems can interact with other political institutions, such as federalism and presidentialism
  • Presidential systems with PR can lead to divided government and policy gridlock

Comparative Case Studies

• United States: FPTP system with two dominant parties (Democrats and Republicans)
  • High levels of party polarization and low voter turnout compared to other democracies
• Germany: MMP system with a stable multi-party system and coalition governments
  • High voter turnout and proportional representation of diverse interests
• France: TRS system with a semi-presidential system and multiple parties
  • Run-off elections can lead to strategic voting and alliances between parties
• Brazil: Open-list PR system with a highly fragmented party system and personalistic politics
  • High levels of corruption and weak party loyalty among voters and politicians
• India: FPTP system with a dominant party (Indian National Congress) and regional parties
  • Ethnic, linguistic, and religious diversity shapes voting patterns and party competition
• New Zealand: Switched from FPTP to MMP in 1996, leading to a more proportional and multi-party system
  • Increased representation of women and minority groups in parliament

Current Trends and Debates

• Declining voter turnout and political participation in many established democracies
  • Concerns about political disengagement, especially among younger generations
• Rise of populist and anti-establishment parties challenging traditional party systems
  • Electoral successes of populist parties in Europe (France, Italy, Hungary) and the Americas (Brazil, Mexico)
• Debates over electoral reforms and the adoption of new voting systems
  • Calls for proportional representation in FPTP systems like the UK and Canada
• Impact of social media and digital technologies on campaigning and voter behavior
  • Concerns about the spread of misinformation and the influence of targeted advertising
• Representation of women and minority groups in elected office
  • Adoption of gender quotas and other measures to increase diversity in politics
• Influence of money and special interests in elections
  • Debates over campaign finance regulations and the role of political action committees (PACs)

Practical Applications

• Understanding electoral systems and voting behavior is crucial for political strategists and campaign managers
  • Tailoring campaign messages and strategies to the incentives and constraints of different electoral systems
• Electoral system design and reform can have significant implications for political stability and representation
  • Policymakers must consider the trade-offs and potential consequences of different electoral rules
• Comparative analysis of electoral systems and voting behavior can inform efforts to strengthen democratic institutions
  • Identifying best practices and lessons learned from successful reforms and innovations
• Knowledge of voting behavior theories and factors influencing voter choice can help journalists and analysts interpret election results
  • Providing context and nuance to discussions of electoral outcomes and public opinion trends
• Educators can use comparative case studies and real-world examples to engage students in the study of electoral politics
  • Promoting critical thinking and analysis skills through the examination of diverse political systems and experiences
• Advocates and activists can use insights from electoral systems and voting behavior research to promote political participation and inclusion
  • Developing strategies to mobilize voters and advance issues of representation and equality in politics