Before fitting anything, check whether an exponential model makes sense. For equally spaced x-values, linear data has constant differences and exponential data has roughly constant ratios.
Worked example. A culture measures 200, 260, 338 and 439.4 at hours 0 through 3. The ratios are 200260=1.3, 260338=1.3 and 338439.4=1.3. So a=200, b=1.3, and the model is y=200(1.3)x, meaning 30% growth per hour.
With two points that aren't at x=0, divide one equation by the other to cancel a. From (2,50) and (5,400) you get b3=8, so b=2. Then 50=a⋅22 gives a=12.5.
Real data is messy, so exponential regression estimates a model y=abx. One method fits a line to (x,lny) for positive y-values, because taking logs turns y=abx into lny=lna+xlnb. Other methods fit the exponential curve using errors on the original scale, so their estimates can differ. An exact positive exponential model appears as a straight line on a semi-log plot.
Judge the fit with a residual plot. Random scatter around zero supports the model, but does not prove it fits. A curved pattern suggests the model may be missing a relationship in the data. Be careful predicting far past your data, since real growth usually slows down.
- Exponential regression: A calculator or software method that finds the y = ab^x curve that best fits a data set.
- Residual: The actual value minus the value the model predicts for the same x.
- Linearization: Taking ln of positive y-values to turn an exponential model into a linear relationship that you can fit.
Check yourself: Data at x = 0, 1, 2, 3 reads 5, 10, 15, 20. Is it exponential? (Answer: No. The differences are a constant 5, so it's linear, and the ratios 2, 1.5 and 1.33 are not constant.)