AP US Government AMSCO Guided Notes
4.13: Public Opinion
AP US Government Guided Notes
AMSCO 4.13 - Public Opinion
Essential Questions
- What are the elements of a scientific poll and how do these elements impact elections and policy?
- How can you determine the quality and credibility of claims based on public opinion data?
I. Measuring Public Opinion
1. What is scientific polling and why have elected officials and news organizations become increasingly interested in measuring public opinion?
A. Measures
1. What is the basic methodology of scientific polling and how has it evolved since the 1930s?
B. Types of Polls
1. What are benchmark polls and tracking polls, and how do campaigns use each type?
2. How do entrance polls and exit polls differ in their purpose and timing?
C. Presidential Approval
1. What is a presidential honeymoon period and how does it typically affect approval ratings?
2. What factors have contributed to the highest and lowest presidential approval ratings in recent history?
3. How do the 'right track' and 'wrong track' questions and generic party ballot questions measure public opinion?
D. Focus Groups
1. What is a focus group and how does it differ from other polling methods in terms of depth and insight?
E. Methodology
1. Questions
1. How can the wording of survey questions affect poll results on emotional issues?
2. What is question framing and how does it influence respondents' answers?
3. How does the order in which questions are asked impact poll results?
2. Sampling Techniques
1. What is a representative sample and why is random sampling essential for accurate polling?
2. What is random-digit dialing and how has it improved telephone polling reliability?
3. What is weighting or stratification and why do pollsters use these techniques?
3. Sampling Error
1. What is sampling error and what is the relationship between sample size and margin of error?
2. What is non-attitudes and how does it affect the reliability of poll results?
3. Why do many respondents express opinions on issues they are uninformed about?
4. Human Bias
1. How do differences between mailed questionnaires and telephone interviews affect respondent honesty?
2. How can the race or gender of an interviewer influence respondents' answers on sensitive topics?
3. What is push polling and how does it differ from legitimate scientific polling?
5. Methodology Moving With the Public
1. How has the shift from landlines to cell phones affected polling methodology and sample demographics?
2. What challenges do pollsters face in obtaining adequate response rates and how are they adapting?
II. Evaluating Public Opinion Data
1. Why is it important to evaluate the methodology and credibility of a poll, not just its findings?
A. Claims, Credibility, and Public Opinion Data
1. What skills do citizens need to evaluate the quality and credibility of public opinion poll claims?
B. Public Opinion and Political Influence
1. What is 'horse race' journalism and how can it influence which candidates participate in debates?
2. What is the bandwagon effect and how does it influence both voter behavior and campaign fundraising?
3. Why do media outlets typically withhold exit poll results until after polls close in a state?
C. Influence on Policy Debate
1. How do the legislative and executive branches respond differently to public opinion polling?
2. How might public opinion influence the judicial branch despite judges serving lifetime appointments?
D. Reliability and Veracity of Public Opinion Data
1. What is candidate error and how has it changed as polling techniques have improved?
2. Why did major polling firms fail to accurately predict the outcomes of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections?
E. Social-Desirability Bias
1. What is social-desirability bias and how does it affect poll predictions about voter turnout?
2. What is the Bradley effect and what does it reveal about social-desirability bias in polling?
F. Non-Response Bias
1. What is non-response bias and how might it have affected polling in the 2016 presidential election?
G. Accuracy in Recent Polls
1. How accurate were polls in the 2020 and 2024 presidential elections and what were the key differences?
H. Biased Pollsters and Data vs. Fact
1. How can political parties and special interest groups use polls to advance their agendas?
2. What information should you examine to evaluate whether a poll is credible and truthful?
Key Terms
approval rating
benchmark polls
entrance polls
exit polls
focus group
public opinion polls
push polling
random-digit dialing
random sample
representative sample
sampling error
margin of error
sampling techniques
tracking polls
weighting
stratification
bandwagon effect
Bradley effect
non-response bias
social desirability bias