Plausibility

Definition

Plausibility refers to the degree to which a scenario or outcome is considered believable or realistic based on available evidence and reasoning. In strategic foresight, it helps assess how likely certain scenarios are to occur, enabling better decision-making and planning. Understanding plausibility involves evaluating historical trends, expert opinions, and potential impacts, which ultimately shapes the development of future strategies and responses.

5 Must Know Facts For Your Next Test

1. Plausibility is essential in scenario planning as it helps determine which scenarios are worth exploring in depth based on their likelihood.
2. Assessing plausibility involves gathering qualitative and quantitative data to support or challenge the realism of potential future outcomes.
3. The plausibility of a scenario can shift over time as new information emerges or circumstances change, requiring continuous reassessment.
4. Expert judgments and stakeholder input play a crucial role in establishing the plausibility of different scenarios during strategic foresight exercises.
5. A plausible scenario should not only be realistic but also relevant to the decision-making context, aligning with organizational goals and objectives.

Review Questions

• How does the concept of plausibility influence the selection of scenarios in strategic foresight?
  • Plausibility directly influences scenario selection by helping teams identify which scenarios are realistic enough to warrant deeper exploration. Scenarios deemed plausible are more likely to provide useful insights into potential futures, while those seen as highly unlikely can be set aside. By evaluating plausibility based on data and expert opinions, organizations can focus their resources on developing strategies for the most relevant and actionable scenarios.
• In what ways can expert judgments enhance the assessment of plausibility in scenario planning?
  • Expert judgments can significantly enhance the assessment of plausibility by providing specialized knowledge and insights that may not be available through standard data analysis. Experts can help identify underlying trends, challenges, and opportunities that shape the realism of various scenarios. Their experience and understanding of the subject matter enable teams to critically evaluate assumptions and refine scenarios to ensure they reflect a credible range of future possibilities.
• Evaluate how changes in external conditions might affect the plausibility of previously considered scenarios in strategic foresight.
  • Changes in external conditions, such as technological advancements, shifts in consumer behavior, or unexpected global events, can dramatically alter the plausibility of previously considered scenarios. For instance, a sudden economic downturn might make certain optimistic growth scenarios less plausible while enhancing the likelihood of more pessimistic forecasts. Evaluating these changes requires ongoing monitoring and adaptability in scenario planning processes to ensure organizations remain prepared for emerging realities.

Related terms

Feasibility:

Feasibility examines whether a scenario can be achieved within given constraints, focusing on practical aspects like resources, time, and technology.

Scenario Planning:

Scenario planning is a strategic method used to visualize and prepare for possible future events by creating detailed narratives based on varying assumptions.

Risk Assessment: Risk assessment involves identifying, analyzing, and evaluating potential risks associated with different scenarios or decisions.