Overestimating

Definition

Overestimating refers to the tendency of individuals to overestimate or exaggerate the probability or likelihood of an event happening, often based on a memorable or vivid experience. It involves assigning a higher level of probability to an event than is actually justified.

Related terms

Availability Heuristic:

The availability heuristic is a mental shortcut where people base their judgments on the ease with which examples come to mind. In this case, overestimating can be linked to the availability heuristic - we rely on easily accessible and vivid memories when estimating probabilities.

Vividness Effect: The vividness effect describes how our memory for vivid and emotionally charged events tends to be stronger compared to mundane events. Overestimating can occur as a result of giving greater weight and importance to these vivid experiences in our minds.

Recency Bias: Recency bias refers to the tendency of people placing more emphasis on recent events or information when making decisions or judgments. When overestimating, we may give excessive importance and weightage to recent memorable experiences, leading us to inflate the probability of similar events occurring in the future.