intro to probabilistic methods unit 3 study guides

Key Concepts and Definitions

• Discrete random variables take on a countable number of distinct values (integers, whole numbers)
• Sample space $S$ consists of all possible outcomes of a random experiment
  • Each outcome is assigned a probability $P(x)$ where $x$ is an element of the sample space
• Probability distribution assigns a probability to each possible value of a discrete random variable
  • Sum of all probabilities in a probability distribution equals 1
• Independence means the occurrence of one event does not affect the probability of another event occurring
  • Example: flipping a fair coin multiple times, each flip is independent of the others
• Mutually exclusive events cannot occur at the same time (rolling a 1 and a 6 on a single die roll)

Types of Discrete Random Variables

• Bernoulli random variable takes on only two possible values, typically 0 and 1 (success or failure)
  • Example: a single coin flip where heads is 1 and tails is 0
• Binomial random variable represents the number of successes in a fixed number of independent Bernoulli trials
  • Trials must have the same probability of success $p$ for each trial
• Geometric random variable counts the number of trials needed to achieve the first success in a series of independent Bernoulli trials
• Poisson random variable models the number of events occurring in a fixed interval of time or space
  • Events occur independently at a constant average rate $\lambda$
• Hypergeometric random variable describes the number of successes in a fixed number of draws from a population without replacement
  • Population size, number of successes in the population, and number of draws are all fixed

Probability Mass Functions

• Probability Mass Function (PMF) denoted as $P(X=x)$ gives the probability that a discrete random variable $X$ takes on a specific value $x$
  • $P(X=x) \geq 0$ for all $x$ in the sample space
  • $\sum_{x} P(X=x) = 1$ where the sum is taken over all possible values of $X$
• PMF can be represented as a table, graph, or formula
  • Table lists all possible values of $X$ and their corresponding probabilities
  • Graph plots the probability $P(X=x)$ against the value $x$
• PMF uniquely characterizes the probability distribution of a discrete random variable
• Example: PMF for a fair six-sided die roll where $P(X=x) = \frac{1}{6}$ for $x = 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6$

Cumulative Distribution Functions

• Cumulative Distribution Function (CDF) denoted as $F(x) = P(X \leq x)$ gives the probability that a discrete random variable $X$ takes on a value less than or equal to $x$
  • $F(x)$ is a non-decreasing function with $F(-\infty) = 0$ and $F(\infty) = 1$
• CDF can be obtained from the PMF by summing the probabilities of all values less than or equal to $x$
  • $F(x) = \sum_{t \leq x} P(X=t)$ where the sum is taken over all values $t$ less than or equal to $x$
• CDF uniquely determines the probability distribution of a discrete random variable
  • $P(a < X \leq b) = F(b) - F(a)$ for any values $a$ and $b$ with $a < b$
• Example: CDF for a fair six-sided die roll where $F(x) = \frac{x}{6}$ for $x = 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6$

Expected Value and Variance

• Expected value (mean) of a discrete random variable $X$ denoted as $E(X)$ is the weighted average of all possible values
  • $E(X) = \sum_{x} x \cdot P(X=x)$ where the sum is taken over all possible values of $X$
• Variance of a discrete random variable $X$ denoted as $Var(X)$ measures the spread of the distribution around the mean
  • $Var(X) = E[(X - E(X))^2] = E(X^2) - [E(X)]^2$
• Standard deviation $\sigma$ is the square root of the variance
  • Measures the average distance between each value and the mean
• Linearity of expectation states that $E(aX + bY) = aE(X) + bE(Y)$ for constants $a$ and $b$ and random variables $X$ and $Y$
  • Holds even if $X$ and $Y$ are not independent
• Example: for a fair six-sided die roll, $E(X) = \frac{7}{2}$ and $Var(X) = \frac{35}{12}$

Common Discrete Distributions

• Bernoulli distribution with parameter $p$ where $P(X=1) = p$ and $P(X=0) = 1-p$
  • Mean is $p$ and variance is $p(1-p)$
• Binomial distribution with parameters $n$ and $p$ where $P(X=k) = \binom{n}{k} p^k (1-p)^{n-k}$ for $k = 0, 1, \ldots, n$
  • Mean is $np$ and variance is $np(1-p)$
• Geometric distribution with parameter $p$ where $P(X=k) = (1-p)^{k-1}p$ for $k = 1, 2, \ldots$
  • Mean is $\frac{1}{p}$ and variance is $\frac{1-p}{p^2}$
• Poisson distribution with parameter $\lambda$ where $P(X=k) = \frac{e^{-\lambda}\lambda^k}{k!}$ for $k = 0, 1, 2, \ldots$
  • Mean and variance are both equal to $\lambda$
• Hypergeometric distribution with parameters $N$, $K$, and $n$ where $P(X=k) = \frac{\binom{K}{k}\binom{N-K}{n-k}}{\binom{N}{n}}$ for $\max(0, n+K-N) \leq k \leq \min(n, K)$
  • Mean is $\frac{nK}{N}$ and variance is $\frac{nK(N-K)(N-n)}{N^2(N-1)}$

Applications and Examples

• Quality control inspecting a sample of products for defects (binomial distribution)
  • Each product is either defective or non-defective, and the probability of a defect is constant
• Modeling the number of customers arriving at a store within a given time period (Poisson distribution)
  • Customers arrive independently at a constant average rate
• Analyzing the number of trials needed to achieve a success in a series of experiments (geometric distribution)
  • Each trial is independent and has the same probability of success
• Studying the distribution of rare events such as accidents or machine failures (Poisson distribution)
  • Events occur randomly and independently over time or space
• Sampling without replacement from a population to estimate proportions (hypergeometric distribution)
  • Population size, sample size, and number of successes in the population are fixed

Problem-Solving Techniques

• Identify the type of discrete random variable and its parameters based on the problem description
  • Determine if the variable follows a specific distribution (binomial, geometric, Poisson, etc.)
• Write the probability mass function or cumulative distribution function for the given random variable
  • Use the appropriate formula based on the distribution type and parameters
• Calculate probabilities, expected values, and variances using the PMF, CDF, or distribution-specific formulas
  • Apply the definitions and properties of expectation and variance
• Use the linearity of expectation to find the expected value of a sum or difference of random variables
  • Simplify complex problems by breaking them down into simpler components
• Recognize when to apply the Central Limit Theorem for approximating the distribution of a sum or average of random variables
  • Use the normal distribution as an approximation for large sample sizes
• Solve problems involving conditional probability and independence by using the multiplication rule and Bayes' theorem
  • Update probabilities based on new information or events