Ⓜ️Political Geography Unit 8 – Geopolitics of climate change

Key Concepts in Climate Change Geopolitics

• Climate change is a global phenomenon with far-reaching geopolitical implications affecting international relations, national security, and economic stability
• Greenhouse gas emissions, primarily from human activities (burning fossil fuels, deforestation), are the main drivers of anthropogenic climate change
• Climate justice addresses the disproportionate impacts of climate change on vulnerable populations and the equitable distribution of responsibilities and costs
• Mitigation strategies aim to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and limit the extent of climate change (renewable energy, carbon taxes)
• Adaptation measures help communities and ecosystems cope with the unavoidable impacts of climate change (sea walls, drought-resistant crops)
• Climate diplomacy involves international negotiations and agreements to address climate change collectively, often facing challenges due to conflicting national interests
• The principle of common but differentiated responsibilities recognizes the historical differences in contributions to climate change and varying capacities to respond

Historical Context of Climate Politics

• Early scientific understanding of the greenhouse effect and human influence on the climate system emerged in the 19th century (Fourier, Tyndall, Arrhenius)
• The 1972 United Nations Conference on the Human Environment in Stockholm marked the beginning of international environmental politics
• The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) was established in 1988 to assess the scientific, technical, and socio-economic information relevant to climate change
• The 1992 Earth Summit in Rio de Janeiro produced the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), the foundation for international climate negotiations
• The Kyoto Protocol, adopted in 1997, set legally binding emissions reduction targets for developed countries
• The 2009 Copenhagen Accord marked a shift towards a bottom-up approach in climate negotiations, with countries submitting voluntary emissions reduction pledges
• The Paris Agreement, adopted in 2015, aimed to limit global temperature rise well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels and pursue efforts to limit it to 1.5°C

Major International Climate Agreements

• The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) established the basic framework for international climate negotiations and the principle of common but differentiated responsibilities
• The Kyoto Protocol set legally binding emissions reduction targets for developed countries, introducing market-based mechanisms (emissions trading, Clean Development Mechanism)
• The Copenhagen Accord marked a shift towards a bottom-up approach, with countries submitting voluntary emissions reduction pledges
• The Paris Agreement aims to limit global temperature rise, enhance adaptation efforts, and align financial flows with low-carbon development
  • Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) are voluntary emissions reduction targets submitted by each country
  • The agreement includes a global stocktake every five years to assess collective progress
• The Kigali Amendment to the Montreal Protocol, adopted in 2016, aims to phase down the production and consumption of hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), potent greenhouse gases
• The Doha Amendment to the Kyoto Protocol, adopted in 2012, established a second commitment period for emissions reductions from 2013 to 2020

Global Power Dynamics and Climate Negotiations

• Developed countries, historically responsible for the majority of greenhouse gas emissions, have been expected to take the lead in emissions reductions and providing support to developing countries
• Developing countries, facing the dual challenges of poverty alleviation and climate change impacts, have emphasized the need for financial and technological support from developed countries
• The principle of common but differentiated responsibilities has been a point of contention, with debates over the respective obligations of developed and developing countries
• The United States, as the world's largest economy and second-largest emitter, has played a pivotal role in climate negotiations, with its positions influencing global efforts
• China, the world's largest emitter, has increasingly taken on a leadership role in climate action, investing heavily in renewable energy and committing to carbon neutrality by 2060
• The European Union has been a consistent advocate for ambitious climate action, setting targets for emissions reductions and renewable energy
• Alliances among developing countries, such as the BASIC group (Brazil, South Africa, India, China), have sought to assert their common interests in climate negotiations

Regional Impacts and Responses to Climate Change

• Small island developing states (SIDS) are particularly vulnerable to sea-level rise, coastal erosion, and extreme weather events, advocating for ambitious global climate action
• Sub-Saharan Africa faces significant risks from droughts, food insecurity, and water scarcity, emphasizing the need for adaptation support and climate finance
• The Arctic region is warming at a faster rate than the global average, with implications for sea ice extent, permafrost thaw, and indigenous communities
• South Asia is exposed to glacial melt in the Himalayas, affecting water resources, as well as monsoon variability and sea-level rise
• Latin America and the Caribbean are vulnerable to extreme weather events, such as hurricanes and floods, as well as impacts on agriculture and biodiversity
• The Middle East and North Africa region faces water scarcity, desertification, and heat waves, with implications for food security and social stability
• Europe is experiencing more frequent and intense heatwaves, droughts, and floods, with impacts on agriculture, energy systems, and human health

Climate Change as a Security Issue

• Climate change is increasingly recognized as a threat multiplier, exacerbating existing security risks and contributing to new ones
• Water scarcity and food insecurity, exacerbated by climate change, can lead to social unrest, migration, and conflict
• Sea-level rise and coastal flooding can displace populations, creating climate refugees and straining resources in receiving areas
• Extreme weather events can damage critical infrastructure, disrupt economic activities, and overwhelm disaster response capacities
• Competition for resources, such as water and arable land, can intensify regional tensions and transboundary disputes
• The Arctic's changing environment has geopolitical implications, with increased access to shipping routes and resource extraction leading to potential conflicts
• Climate change can contribute to the fragility of states, particularly those with weak governance and limited adaptive capacity

Economic Implications of Climate Policies

• The transition to a low-carbon economy requires significant investments in renewable energy, energy efficiency, and sustainable infrastructure
• Carbon pricing mechanisms, such as carbon taxes and emissions trading schemes, aim to internalize the external costs of greenhouse gas emissions and incentivize low-carbon technologies
• Fossil fuel-dependent economies face the challenge of diversifying their economic base and managing the social and political implications of a shift away from fossil fuels
• Climate finance, including public and private sources, is crucial for supporting mitigation and adaptation efforts in developing countries
• Green jobs and the development of clean technologies present opportunities for economic growth and innovation
• The costs of inaction on climate change, including damages from extreme weather events and impacts on public health and productivity, can outweigh the costs of mitigation measures
• International trade and investment agreements increasingly incorporate provisions related to climate change and the environment

Future Scenarios and Challenges in Climate Geopolitics

• The implementation of the Paris Agreement and the achievement of its temperature goals depend on the ambition and effectiveness of countries' Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs)
• The need for more ambitious emissions reductions to limit global warming to 1.5°C or well below 2°C requires a rapid and far-reaching transition in energy, land use, transportation, and industrial systems
• Climate change adaptation and resilience-building efforts will be critical for managing the unavoidable impacts of climate change, particularly for vulnerable communities and regions
• Climate finance and technology transfer will remain key issues in international climate negotiations, with calls for scaled-up support from developed to developing countries
• The potential for climate-related displacement and migration may require new international frameworks and cooperation mechanisms
• Geoengineering techniques, such as solar radiation management and carbon dioxide removal, may gain attention as potential options for mitigating climate change, but raise ethical, political, and governance questions
• The intersection of climate change with other global challenges, such as biodiversity loss, public health, and sustainable development, will require integrated and coherent policy responses