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Margin of Error

Definition

The margin of error refers to the range within which the true population value is estimated to lie based on a sample. It measures the precision or uncertainty of a survey or poll result.

Analogy

Imagine you have a jar filled with different colored candies, but you can only see a handful at a time. The margin of error is like trying to estimate how many red candies are in the entire jar by randomly selecting and counting only 10 candies from your small sample. The larger the margin of error, the wider the range within which you estimate the number of red candies could fall.

Related terms

Confidence Level: This term refers to how certain we want to be about our estimation. For example, if we choose a 95% confidence level, it means we are 95% confident that our estimation falls within the margin of error.

Sample Size: The number of individuals surveyed or polled is crucial because a larger sample size tends to reduce the margin of error.

Sampling Bias: This term describes when certain groups have been systematically excluded or underrepresented in the selection process for a survey or poll, leading to inaccurate estimations.