Key Decision-Making Heuristics

Why This Matters

Decision-making heuristics sit at the heart of cognitive psychology's exploration of bounded rationality—the idea that humans aren't perfectly logical calculators but rather efficient problem-solvers working within mental constraints. When you study these heuristics, you're uncovering the fundamental tension between cognitive efficiency and judgment accuracy that drives much of human behavior. These concepts connect directly to broader themes you'll encounter: dual-process theory, cognitive biases, judgment under uncertainty, and the adaptive nature of human cognition.

On exams, you're being tested on more than just definitions—you need to understand why each heuristic exists, when it leads us astray, and how different heuristics relate to one another. Don't just memorize the names; know what cognitive principle each heuristic illustrates and be ready to identify which heuristic is operating in a given scenario. That's where the points are.

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Memory-Based Heuristics

These heuristics rely on what comes to mind—they exploit the accessibility of mental content to make rapid judgments about probability, frequency, and quality.

Availability Heuristic

• Judges likelihood based on ease of recall—if examples come to mind quickly, we assume the event is common or probable
• Vivid or recent experiences distort our perception; a plane crash in the news makes flying seem riskier than driving, despite statistics showing otherwise
• Explains media influence on risk perception—dramatic events receive disproportionate mental weight because they're memorable, not because they're frequent

Recognition Heuristic

• Favors recognized options over unrecognized ones—operates on the assumption that familiarity signals quality or reliability
• Requires ignorance to function; if you recognize both options, this heuristic can't guide your choice
• Surprisingly accurate in specific domains—recognizing a city's name often correlates with its actual population size, making this a "fast and frugal" strategy

Fluency Heuristic

• Equates processing ease with truth or value—information that's easier to read, pronounce, or understand feels more credible
• Font clarity and rhyming can actually influence judgments; "woes unite foes" seems more true than "woes unite enemies"
• Exploited in advertising and design—clear, simple messaging is perceived as more trustworthy, regardless of actual content

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Prototype-Based Heuristics

These heuristics work by matching new information to mental templates—we judge probability or category membership by how well something fits our existing mental models.

Representativeness Heuristic

• Assesses probability by similarity to a prototype—we judge how likely something is based on how well it matches our mental stereotype
• Causes base rate neglect; knowing that 90% of a sample are engineers matters less than whether someone "seems like" an engineer
• Classic example: the Linda problem—people rate "Linda is a feminist bank teller" as more probable than "Linda is a bank teller," violating basic probability rules

Affect Heuristic

• Substitutes emotional reaction for careful analysis—"how do I feel about it?" replaces "what do I think about it?"
• Creates inverse risk-benefit judgments; activities we like feel both low-risk AND high-benefit, though logically these should be independent
• Speeds decision-making dramatically but makes us vulnerable to manipulation through emotional framing

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Anchoring-Based Heuristics

These heuristics demonstrate how initial information disproportionately shapes subsequent judgments—our estimates are pulled toward starting points, even arbitrary ones.

Anchoring and Adjustment Heuristic

• Initial values serve as reference points that bias all subsequent estimates—even random numbers can anchor judgments
• Adjustment is typically insufficient; we move away from anchors but not far enough, creating systematic bias toward the starting point
• Pervasive in negotiations and pricing—a high initial asking price raises the final sale price, even when buyers know the anchor is inflated

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Simplification Heuristics

These strategies reduce cognitive load by limiting the information considered—they trade comprehensiveness for speed and manageability.

Take-the-Best Heuristic

• Uses only the single most important criterion—ignores all other attributes once a discriminating factor is found
• Follows a cue validity hierarchy; the heuristic checks the most predictive attribute first and stops when it distinguishes between options
• Often performs as well as complex models—in uncertain environments with limited information, this "less is more" approach can match or beat weighted algorithms

Elimination by Aspects

• Sequentially removes options that fail to meet criteria—sets minimum thresholds and discards anything below them
• Order of criteria matters significantly; different attribute sequences can produce different final choices from identical option sets
• Efficient but potentially suboptimal—a great option that barely misses one early criterion gets eliminated, even if it excels elsewhere

Satisficing

• Accepts "good enough" rather than seeking optimal—searches until finding an option that meets minimum requirements, then stops
• Coined by Herbert Simon as part of bounded rationality theory; reflects realistic constraints on time, information, and cognitive capacity
• Contrasts with maximizing, which exhaustively compares all options—satisficers often report higher satisfaction despite choosing "worse" options

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Value-Based Heuristics

These heuristics reveal how perceived value shapes choice—our decisions are influenced by contextual factors that alter how attractive options appear.

Scarcity Heuristic

• Rarity increases perceived value—limited availability triggers desire, independent of actual quality or need
• Activates loss aversion and FOMO; the threat of missing out creates urgency that overrides deliberate evaluation
• Heavily exploited in marketing—"only 3 left!" and "limited time offer" leverage this heuristic to drive impulsive purchasing

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Quick Reference Table

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Self-Check Questions

1. Which two heuristics both involve ignoring statistical base rates, and how do their underlying mechanisms differ?

2. A consumer chooses a product because its packaging is clean and easy to read. Which heuristic is operating, and how would you distinguish this from the recognition heuristic?

3. Compare and contrast satisficing and take-the-best: both simplify decisions, but what fundamental difference exists in how they simplify?

4. An FRQ presents a scenario where someone overestimates their risk of shark attack after watching a documentary. Identify the heuristic and explain why this isn't an example of the affect heuristic.

5. How does the anchoring heuristic differ from other biasing heuristics in terms of what type of information creates the bias?