4.7 Discrete Distribution (Playing Card Experiment)

3 min readjune 27, 2024

Playing cards offer a hands-on way to explore probability distributions. Drawing cards without replacement creates a changing probability landscape, perfect for understanding discrete distributions and their real-world applications.

The takes center stage in this card experiment. It calculates the odds of drawing specific cards, like hearts or aces, from a deck. This distribution showcases how probabilities shift as cards are removed, unlike scenarios with replacement.

Discrete Probability Distributions

Card experiment for probability distributions

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  • Playing card experiment involves drawing cards from a standard 52-card deck without replacement
    • Standard deck contains 4 (hearts, diamonds, clubs, spades) and 13 ranks (Ace, 2, 3, ..., 10, Jack, Queen, King)
    • Drawing without replacement ensures that once a card is drawn, it is not returned to the deck before the next draw
  • Experiment demonstrates a
    • Discrete probability distribution is a function that provides the probability of each possible outcome in a discrete
    • Sample space in this experiment is the set of all possible card draws from the deck
  • Probability of drawing a specific card changes with each draw
    • Drawing a King of hearts on the first draw reduces the probability of drawing another King on the second draw since only 3 Kings remain in the deck

Hypergeometric distribution in card draws

  • Hypergeometric distribution calculates probabilities for drawing a specific number of successes in a fixed number of draws from a population without replacement

    • "Success" in the playing card experiment could be defined as drawing a card of a specific suit (hearts) or rank (Ace)
  • Probability mass function for the hypergeometric distribution: P(X=k)=(Kk)(NKnk)(Nn)P(X = k) = \frac{\binom{K}{k} \binom{N-K}{n-k}}{\binom{N}{n}}

    • NN: total population size (52 for a standard deck)
    • KK: number of successes in the population (13 for the number of hearts in a deck)
    • nn: number of draws (5 for drawing 5 cards)
    • kk: number of successes in the draws (2 for drawing 2 hearts out of 5 draws)
  • The hypergeometric distribution is an example of a discrete probability distribution, where the represents the number of successes in a fixed number of draws

Independence and replacement in card experiments

    • Two events are independent if the occurrence of one event does not affect the probability of the other event occurring
    • In the playing card experiment, draws are not independent because the probability of drawing a specific card changes with each draw (cards are not replaced)
  • Replacement
    • Replacing cards after each draw would result in a constant probability of drawing a specific card across all draws
    • This would lead to a instead of a hypergeometric distribution
    • Binomial distribution is used when there are a fixed number of independent trials with two possible outcomes (success or failure) and the probability of success remains constant across trials (coin flips)

Probability Theory and Combinatorics in Card Experiments

  • provides the mathematical framework for analyzing random phenomena and calculating probabilities
  • is essential in card experiments for calculating the number of possible outcomes
    • For example, using combinatorics to determine the number of ways to draw 5 cards from a 52-card deck
  • in card experiments involves selecting a subset of cards from the deck
    • The sampling process in this experiment is without replacement, affecting the probabilities of subsequent draws
  • When all cards in the deck have an equal probability of being drawn, it represents a

Key Terms to Review (19)

Binomial Distribution: The binomial distribution is a discrete probability distribution that models the number of successes in a fixed number of independent Bernoulli trials, where each trial has only two possible outcomes: success or failure. It is a fundamental concept in probability theory and statistics, with applications across various fields.
Chi-Square Test: The chi-square test is a statistical hypothesis test used to determine if there is a significant difference between observed and expected frequencies or proportions in one or more categories. It is a versatile test that can be applied in various contexts, including contingency tables, discrete distributions, and tests of independence or variance.
Combinatorics: Combinatorics is the study of discrete mathematical structures, including the counting of finite sets, arrangements, and combinations. It is a fundamental branch of mathematics that has applications in various fields, including probability, statistics, and computer science.
Cumulative Distribution Function: The cumulative distribution function (CDF) is a fundamental concept in probability theory and statistics that describes the probability of a random variable taking a value less than or equal to a given value. It is a function that provides the cumulative probability distribution of a random variable, allowing for the calculation of probabilities for various ranges of values.
Discrete Probability Distribution: A discrete probability distribution is a probability distribution that describes the probability of a discrete random variable taking on a specific value. It is a mathematical function that assigns probabilities to each possible outcome of a discrete random variable.
Discrete Uniform Distribution: The discrete uniform distribution is a probability distribution where a discrete random variable can take on any value within a specified range of equally likely outcomes. It is characterized by a constant probability for each possible value within the range.
Expected Value: Expected value is a statistical concept that represents the average or central tendency of a probability distribution. It is the sum of the products of each possible outcome and its corresponding probability, and it provides a measure of the typical or expected result of a random experiment or process.
Face Cards: Face cards, also known as court cards, are playing cards that feature a depiction of a face or figure, rather than the typical numbered pips. In the standard 52-card deck, the face cards consist of the King, Queen, and Jack of each suit.
Hypergeometric Distribution: The hypergeometric distribution is a discrete probability distribution that describes the number of successes in a sequence of n draws from a finite population without replacement. It is commonly used to model situations where a sample is drawn from a population without replacement, such as selecting balls from an urn or cards from a deck.
Independence: Independence is a fundamental concept in statistics that describes the relationship between two or more variables or events. When variables or events are independent, the occurrence or value of one does not depend on or influence the occurrence or value of the other. This concept is crucial in understanding various statistical analyses and probability distributions.
Maximum Likelihood Estimation: Maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) is a statistical method used to estimate the parameters of a probability distribution by maximizing the likelihood function. It is a fundamental concept in statistical inference that helps determine the values of unknown parameters that best explain the observed data.
P(X): P(X) represents the probability of a specific outcome or event X occurring. It is a fundamental concept in probability theory and statistics that quantifies the likelihood or chance of a particular event happening.
Probability Theory: Probability theory is the mathematical study of the likelihood of events occurring. It provides a framework for quantifying and analyzing uncertainty, enabling the prediction and understanding of random phenomena in various fields, such as statistics, decision-making, and risk assessment.
Random Variable: A random variable is a numerical characteristic of a random phenomenon that can take on different values with certain probabilities. It is a variable whose value is subject to variations due to chance or randomness, and it is used to quantify the outcomes of an experiment or observation.
Sample Space: The sample space refers to the set of all possible outcomes or results in a probability experiment. It represents the universal set of all possible events or scenarios that can occur in a given situation. The sample space is a fundamental concept in probability theory that provides the foundation for understanding and calculating probabilities.
Sampling: Sampling is the process of selecting a subset of individuals or observations from a larger population to make inferences or draw conclusions about the entire population. It is a fundamental concept in statistics and probability that enables researchers to study and understand the characteristics of a population without having to examine every single member.
Suits: In the context of a playing card deck, suits refer to the four distinct categories that the cards are divided into. These suits are the fundamental groupings that provide structure and organization to the deck, enabling various card games and probability calculations.
Variance: Variance is a statistical measure that quantifies the amount of variation or dispersion in a dataset. It represents the average squared deviation from the mean, providing a way to understand the spread or distribution of data points around the central tendency.
σ: σ, or the Greek letter sigma, is a statistical term that represents the standard deviation of a dataset. The standard deviation is a measure of the spread or dispersion of the data points around the mean, and it is a fundamental concept in probability and statistics that is used across a wide range of topics in this course.
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