Causes of Political Violence

Why This Matters

Political violence—whether it manifests as terrorism, civil war, revolution, or ethnic conflict—is one of the most consequential outcomes you'll study in comparative politics. The AP exam expects you to move beyond simply identifying that violence occurs to explaining why it emerges in some contexts and not others. You're being tested on your ability to connect structural conditions like state capacity, regime type, economic development, and social cleavages to the likelihood of violent conflict.

Understanding these causes also helps you analyze the six AP course countries through a comparative lens. Why did Nigeria experience civil war while Mexico's drug violence takes a different form? Why do some authoritarian regimes face revolution while others maintain stability? Don't just memorize a list of causes—know which theoretical framework each cause represents and be ready to apply them to specific country cases on the FRQ.

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Structural Economic Grievances

Economic conditions create the underlying frustrations that can mobilize populations toward violence. Relative deprivation theory suggests that people rebel not when they're poorest, but when they perceive a gap between what they have and what they believe they deserve.

Economic Inequality and Poverty

• Relative deprivation—when marginalized groups perceive growing gaps between themselves and elites, resentment builds even if absolute conditions improve
• Horizontal inequality (inequality between identity groups rather than individuals) is particularly dangerous because it politicizes economic grievances along ethnic or religious lines
• Resource curse dynamics in oil-rich states like Nigeria demonstrate how concentrated wealth can fuel both corruption and violent competition for state control

Resource Scarcity and Competition

• Environmental stress—competition over water, arable land, and grazing rights intensifies when populations grow and climate patterns shift
• Pastoral-farmer conflicts in Nigeria's Middle Belt illustrate how resource competition intersects with ethnic and religious identity to produce sustained violence
• Weak property rights in fragile states mean groups cannot resolve resource disputes through legal channels, making violence a rational alternative

Youth Unemployment and Lack of Opportunities

• Youth bulge theory—societies with large populations of unemployed young men face elevated risks of political violence and recruitment into armed groups
• Opportunity costs for joining violent movements drop dramatically when legitimate economic pathways are blocked, making extremism more attractive
• Urban migration concentrates frustrated youth in cities where they can be mobilized, as seen in Iran's 1979 revolution and the Arab Spring protests

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State Weakness and Institutional Failure

When states cannot perform basic functions—providing security, delivering services, mediating disputes—violence often fills the vacuum. State capacity is a central concept here: the ability of governments to effectively implement policies and maintain order.

Weak State Institutions and Governance

• Security vacuum—when states cannot monopolize legitimate force, armed groups, militias, and criminal organizations compete for territorial control
• Corruption erodes legitimacy by signaling that the state serves elite interests rather than the public good, reducing citizens' stake in peaceful politics
• Failed mediation—without functioning courts and bureaucracies, grievances that could be resolved institutionally instead escalate to violence

Political Repression and Lack of Civil Liberties

• Authoritarian backlash—regimes that suppress dissent through force often radicalize opposition movements that see no peaceful path to change
• Closed political systems (no free elections, banned parties, censored media) eliminate legitimate channels for grievances, making violence appear rational
• State violence begets opposition violence in a cycle where repression and resistance escalate together, as seen in Syria after 2011

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Identity-Based Mobilization

Violence becomes more likely when political entrepreneurs can mobilize populations along ethnic, religious, or ideological lines. Social cleavages become dangerous when they're politicized and overlap with other grievances.

Ethnic and Religious Tensions

• Politicized identity—ethnic and religious differences don't inherently cause violence; they become dangerous when leaders exploit them to mobilize supporters or scapegoat rivals
• Historical discrimination creates grievance narratives that can be activated during political crises, as with Biafran separatism in Nigeria
• Institutional design matters—federal systems, consociational arrangements, and electoral rules can either manage or inflame identity-based competition

Ideological Extremism

• Framing grievances—extremist ideologies provide narratives that justify violence as necessary, righteous, or divinely mandated
• Recruitment pipelines exploit existing frustrations (economic, political, identity-based) and channel them toward radical action
• Transnational networks and social media allow ideologies to spread rapidly across borders, connecting local grievances to global movements like jihadism or far-right nationalism

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Historical and External Factors

Violence rarely emerges from nowhere—it builds on historical legacies and responds to international pressures. Understanding path dependence helps explain why some conflicts persist across generations.

Historical Grievances and Unresolved Conflicts

• Colonial legacies—arbitrary borders, divide-and-rule policies, and extraction-focused institutions created fault lines that persist in post-colonial states
• Cycles of violence—past atrocities create trauma and desire for revenge that can be reactivated by political entrepreneurs decades later
• Transitional justice choices—how societies address past violence (trials, truth commissions, amnesty) shapes whether grievances heal or fester

External Intervention and Foreign Influence

• Proxy conflicts—great power competition can transform local disputes into prolonged wars by providing arms, funding, and diplomatic cover to opposing sides
• Sovereignty violations through military intervention can destabilize regions and create power vacuums, as seen in Libya after 2011
• Diaspora financing and foreign sanctuary for rebel groups can sustain conflicts that might otherwise burn out

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Rapid Change and Disruption

Sudden transformations can overwhelm existing institutions and social arrangements, creating instability even in previously stable societies. Modernization theory and its critics debate whether development reduces or temporarily increases violence risks.

Rapid Social and Economic Changes

• Disrupted livelihoods—globalization, technological change, and structural adjustment can devastate traditional economies faster than new opportunities emerge
• Urbanization pressures—rapid rural-to-urban migration strains housing, services, and social cohesion, concentrating grievances in volatile urban spaces
• Institutional lag—political systems often cannot adapt quickly enough to manage new social demands, creating representation gaps that fuel protest and violence

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Quick Reference Table

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Self-Check Questions

1. Which two causes of political violence both stem from economic grievances but operate through different mechanisms—one emphasizing relative frustration and one emphasizing absolute deprivation?

2. How does the distinction between weak states and repressive states help explain why political violence takes different forms in Nigeria versus Iran?

3. Compare and contrast ethnic mobilization and ideological extremism as causes of violence. Under what conditions might they overlap or reinforce each other?

4. If an FRQ asks you to explain why a country experienced civil war, which causes would you prioritize if the country recently gained independence from colonial rule and has significant oil wealth?

5. Using the concept of political opportunity structure, explain why political repression sometimes prevents violence and sometimes provokes it. What factors determine the outcome?