🦏Contemporary African Politics Unit 10 – Military's Role in African Politics

Historical Context

• Many African countries experienced military coups and interventions in the post-colonial era, often due to political instability, ethnic tensions, and economic challenges
• The legacy of colonialism left weak political institutions and fragmented societies, creating conditions conducive to military takeovers
• Cold War dynamics influenced military interventions, with superpowers supporting or opposing coups based on ideological alignments (capitalist vs. socialist)
• Post-independence leaders often relied on military support to maintain power, blurring the lines between civilian and military authority
  • Some leaders (Mobutu Sese Seko in Zaire) used the military to suppress opposition and consolidate personal rule
• Economic crises and austerity measures in the 1980s and 1990s fueled popular discontent, leading to military interventions justified as necessary to restore order and stability
• The wave of democratization in the 1990s led to a decline in overt military coups, but the military remained a significant political force in many countries

Key Concepts and Theories

• Civil-military relations: The relationship between the civilian government and the military, including issues of civilian control, military professionalism, and political neutrality
• Praetorianism: A political system in which the military dominates decision-making and intervenes in civilian affairs, often justified by claims of national interest or stability
• Coup d'état: The sudden and illegal seizure of power by the military or a faction within the military, often resulting in the overthrow of the existing government
• Guardian coup: A type of military intervention justified as necessary to protect the nation from internal or external threats, corruption, or political instability
• Reformist coup: A military takeover aimed at implementing political, economic, or social reforms, often in response to popular demands or perceived government failures
• Ethnic or regional factionalism within the military can influence the likelihood and nature of interventions, as different groups vie for power and resources
• Resource curse theory suggests that countries with abundant natural resources (oil, minerals) are more prone to military interventions, as the military seeks to control these resources for personal or institutional gain

Military Interventions in African Politics

• Direct military rule: The military takes over the government and rules directly, often suspending the constitution and banning political parties (Nigeria 1966-1979, 1983-1999)
• Military-backed civilian rule: The military installs a civilian government but retains significant influence over policy and decision-making (Egypt under Hosni Mubarak)
• Coup attempts and mutinies: Failed or aborted attempts by the military to seize power, which can still have significant political and social consequences
• Military as a veto player: Even without directly holding power, the military can act as a key political actor, influencing policy and constraining civilian leaders
  • In some cases, the threat of military intervention can be used to extract concessions or shape political outcomes
• Military involvement in internal security: The military may be deployed to quell civil unrest, combat insurgencies, or maintain order, blurring the lines between military and police functions
• Militarization of politics: The increasing influence of military values, norms, and priorities in political discourse and decision-making, even under civilian rule
• Military as an economic actor: The military may control key sectors of the economy, such as natural resources or transportation, giving it significant economic and political leverage

Case Studies

• Nigeria: Experienced multiple coups and military regimes (1966-1979, 1983-1999) before transitioning to civilian rule, illustrating the challenges of military disengagement from politics
• Ghana: The 1981 coup led by Jerry Rawlings initially had popular support but later faced resistance as it implemented structural adjustment policies, highlighting the complex relationship between the military and the public
• Egypt: The military has played a central role in politics since the 1952 Free Officers' Coup, with the 2011 uprising and 2013 coup demonstrating its continued influence and ability to shape political outcomes
• Burkina Faso: The 2014 popular uprising against Blaise Compaoré and the 2015 failed coup attempt by the Presidential Guard showed the limits of military influence in the face of strong civil society mobilization
• The Gambia: The 2016 election and subsequent political crisis, resolved through regional military intervention (ECOWAS), demonstrated the potential for external actors to counter military interference in politics
• Zimbabwe: The 2017 military intervention that ousted long-time leader Robert Mugabe highlighted the role of factional dynamics within the military and the ruling party (ZANU-PF) in shaping political outcomes

Impact on Governance and Development

• Military interventions often disrupt democratic processes and weaken civilian institutions, undermining long-term political stability and accountability
• Military regimes may prioritize short-term stability and order over long-term institution-building and development, leading to a cycle of instability and intervention
• Corruption and mismanagement are common under military rule, as the lack of civilian oversight and the concentration of power enable rent-seeking and patronage networks
  • This can lead to the diversion of public resources away from development priorities and the entrenchment of economic inequalities
• Human rights abuses and repression are more likely under military regimes, as the military may use force to suppress dissent and maintain control
• Military spending often increases under military rule, diverting resources away from social services, infrastructure, and other development needs
• The politicization of the military can undermine its professionalism and effectiveness, as loyalty and political connections become more important than merit and competence
• Prolonged military rule can foster a culture of impunity and hinder the development of a strong civil society and independent media, essential for democratic consolidation

International Response and Intervention

• International organizations (UN, AU, ECOWAS) have adopted norms and frameworks to prevent and respond to unconstitutional changes of government, including military coups
  • The African Union's 2000 Lomé Declaration and 2007 African Charter on Democracy, Elections, and Governance outline principles for democratic governance and reject unconstitutional changes of power
• Regional organizations have intervened militarily to restore constitutional order and protect civilians, such as ECOWAS in The Gambia (2016) and Mali (2012)
• International sanctions, such as travel bans and asset freezes, have been used to pressure military regimes to restore civilian rule and respect human rights
  • However, the effectiveness of sanctions is often limited by inconsistent enforcement and unintended consequences for the civilian population
• Foreign powers have sometimes supported military interventions that align with their strategic interests, undermining international norms and legitimizing military interference in politics
• Donor aid and security assistance can inadvertently strengthen the military's political influence, particularly when channeled through the military rather than civilian institutions
• International efforts to promote security sector reform and civilian control of the military have had mixed results, as they often face resistance from entrenched military interests and require long-term commitment and resources

Current Trends and Future Outlook

• Despite a decline in overt military coups since the 1990s, the military remains a significant political force in many African countries, with the potential to intervene in times of crisis or instability
• The rise of popular protests and civil society activism has challenged the legitimacy of military interventions and pressured militaries to return to the barracks
• Generational shifts within the military, with younger officers more exposed to democratic norms and professional training, may reduce the likelihood of coups and interventions
• The increasing importance of regional and international actors in promoting democratic governance and responding to unconstitutional changes of power may constrain military interference in politics
• However, the persistence of socio-economic and security challenges, such as poverty, inequality, and terrorism, may continue to provide justifications for military interventions in some contexts
• The COVID-19 pandemic has exacerbated economic and social pressures in many African countries, potentially increasing the risk of political instability and military intervention
• Climate change and environmental degradation may also contribute to resource scarcity, population displacement, and conflict, creating new challenges for civil-military relations and political stability

Debates and Controversies

• The role of the military in politics: Some argue that the military can be a force for stability and reform in contexts of weak civilian institutions, while others see military intervention as inherently undemocratic and detrimental to long-term development
• The effectiveness of international responses: There are debates about the consistency and impact of international norms and interventions in preventing and responding to military coups, with some arguing that they are selective and often driven by geopolitical interests rather than democratic principles
• The impact of foreign assistance on civil-military relations: Some scholars argue that foreign aid and security assistance can inadvertently strengthen the military's political influence and undermine civilian control, while others see it as necessary for building professional and accountable security forces
• The relationship between democracy and stability: There are debates about whether democratic governance is necessary for long-term stability and development, or whether some form of "developmental authoritarianism" (as in Rwanda or Ethiopia) can be justified in certain contexts
• The role of ethnic and regional factors: Some scholars emphasize the importance of ethnic and regional dynamics in shaping military interventions and political outcomes, while others focus on institutional and structural factors
• The legacy of colonialism and Cold War interventions: There are ongoing debates about the extent to which external actors, particularly former colonial powers and Cold War superpowers, bear responsibility for the political instability and military interventions in post-colonial Africa
• The potential for democratic civil-military relations: Some scholars argue that it is possible to build professional, apolitical militaries that are accountable to civilian authorities, while others see the military's political influence as an enduring feature of African politics that must be managed rather than eliminated