Probabilistic Decision-Making

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Bounded rationality

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Probabilistic Decision-Making

Definition

Bounded rationality refers to the idea that when making decisions, individuals are limited by the information they have, the cognitive limitations of their minds, and the time available to make a choice. This concept suggests that while people strive to make rational decisions, they often settle for a solution that is good enough rather than the optimal one due to these constraints. Bounded rationality emphasizes that decision-making occurs in an environment filled with uncertainty, where not all factors can be known or considered.

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5 Must Know Facts For Your Next Test

  1. Bounded rationality suggests that humans cannot process all available information when making decisions due to cognitive limitations.
  2. The term was introduced by Herbert Simon in the 1950s, highlighting the contrast between traditional economic theories of rational behavior and real-world decision-making.
  3. In practical situations, people often use heuristics or simplified rules to guide their choices, which may lead to biases or errors.
  4. Satisficing is a key aspect of bounded rationality, as individuals look for solutions that meet their needs rather than seeking the absolute best option.
  5. Bounded rationality is especially relevant in organizational contexts where time pressure and complex information environments are common.

Review Questions

  • How does bounded rationality influence decision-making processes in uncertain environments?
    • Bounded rationality influences decision-making by acknowledging that individuals often operate with incomplete information and limited cognitive resources. In uncertain environments, people may not be able to evaluate every possible alternative or outcome, leading them to rely on heuristics or simplified decision rules. This results in decisions that may not be optimal but are satisfactory given the constraints faced by the decision-maker.
  • Discuss the implications of bounded rationality for managers when making strategic decisions.
    • For managers, bounded rationality implies that they should be aware of their own cognitive limitations and the uncertainties involved in strategic decision-making. They might need to create processes that allow for gathering sufficient information while also recognizing when a 'good enough' decision is preferable to an exhaustive search for an optimal solution. This perspective encourages flexibility and adaptability in strategies, understanding that not all outcomes can be predicted accurately.
  • Evaluate how bounded rationality interacts with the concepts of heuristics and satisficing in shaping decision-making behavior.
    • Bounded rationality interacts closely with heuristics and satisficing as these concepts represent methods through which individuals navigate their decision-making limitations. Heuristics serve as mental shortcuts that help simplify complex decisions, while satisficing reflects the tendency to accept a solution that meets acceptable criteria instead of pursuing perfection. This interplay illustrates how people construct practical approaches to decision-making under uncertainty and cognitive constraints, ultimately influencing behavior in personal and professional contexts.
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