Read the four sources carefully, focusing on a theme or issue that connects them and the different perspective each represents. Then, write a logically organized, well-reasoned, and well-written argument that presents your own perspective on the theme or issue you identified. You must incorporate at least two of the sources provided and link the claims in your argument to supporting evidence. You may also use the other provided sources or draw upon your own knowledge. In your response, refer to the provided sources as Source A, Source B, Source C, or Source D, or by the authors’ names.

In higher education, we are often reminded of the inevitable: We are standing on the edge of an enrollment cliff. The number of people turning 18 each year is declining nationwide, and in turn, annual college enrollment rates are falling.

This "demographic cliff" was a long time coming. In fact, we can pinpoint its start to the mid-2000s, when the national birth rate began to fall. The Center for Disease Control and Prevention has tracked this steady decline over the past 20 years, noting only a slight increase after 2020. Experts predicted that 2025 would be the year when colleges would start seeing smaller classes of enrolled freshmen.

Today, there are more people reaching retirement age than coming of age nationwide.

This will have a staggering impact on education, our workforce and economy, and society as a whole, as there will not be enough young workers to fill the jobs left by retiring Baby Boomers.

Though this situation is nationally concerning, we are in a strategic position to make a difference as community college educators. While Gen Z students generally consider a college education to be important, they are more skeptical of the traditional college experience than previous generations, questioning its value for the cost, and expressing concerns about employability and student loan debt.

Many are opting instead for skilled trade work, attracted by the promise of job stability, work-life balance, a shorter time to certification, and a varied day-to-day schedule. A new study conducted by The Harris Poll shows that previously negative perceptions of "blue-collar" work are shifting, and young people are leading the movement.

According to the latest data from the National Student Clearinghouse Research Center, enrollment at trade-focused two-year institutions has surged nearly 20% since spring 2020, now accounting for 19.4% of all public two-year college enrollment.

Job prospects look bright in the skilled trades. Gusto reports that demand for skilled trade workers has steadily increased since 2019. In 2024, 18-to 25-year-olds made up nearly 25% of all new skilled trade hires, even though Gen Z comprised just 18% of the overall workforce, according to the Department of Labor.

Also, as concerns emerge around AI's impact on jobs, Gen Z believes skilled trades work offers more stability. Over half of Gen Z believes that "blue-collar" jobs have more job security than "white-collar" desk jobs, given the growth of AI in the workforce. This makes practical sense, since automating an office report or set of calculations is much closer to current reality than automating tasks like installing an air conditioning unit or repairing an aging electrical system.

Our society relies on professionals in the skilled trades to function, from plumbers and electricians to nurses, mechanics, and machinists. Even more importantly, we need skilled workers to help reconstruct our world when it falls apart.

Black students enroll in career and technical education programs at rates on par with their peers, but studies suggest they're overrepresented in service-oriented fields that lead to lower-wage jobs, and less likely to participate in CTE courses in potentially lucrative STEM fields.

A new research brief, released last week by the Joint Center for Political and Economic Studies, delved into such inequities and explored possible solutions based on qualitative interviews with Black program staff, current and former CTE students, members of workforce development organizations, training providers, researchers, and other CTE experts. The authors argue those voices are especially critical when federal legislation funding the programs—the Strengthening Career and Technical Education for the 21st Century Act, or Perkins V—is poised for reauthorization in fiscal year 2026.

The report pointed out that in the 2022–23 academic year, Black students made up about 13 percent of high school students and about 15 percent of college students in CTE programs. But a 2020 analysis of CTE data in 40 states by Hechinger Report and the Associated Press found that Black students were less likely than their white peers to enroll in courses focused on science, technology, engineering, math and information technology, and more likely to take classes in fields such as hospitality and human services.

A 2021 report by the Urban Institute also found that compared to their white peers, Black students in CTE courses had significantly lower grade point averages, lower rates of earning credentials or degrees at their first colleges, and a lower likelihood of finding a job in a related field. On average, Black participants in these programs earned more than $8,200 less than white students six years after starting CTE programs, controlling for the highest degree attained and sector of study. Earnings gaps worsened for Black students in online CTE programs; Black students who enrolled in those earned less than half of what their white peers did, despite having started in the same program in the same year, eventually earning the same degrees.

"These disparities are major barriers to increasing the earning potential of Black workers and learners and to narrowing the racial wealth divide," Joint Center president Dedrick Asante-Muhammad said in a news release.

In interviews with the Joint Center, Black CTE experts shared insights into some of the challenges of providing more equitable CTE programs.

Some emphasized that Black CTE teachers, and technical instructors in general, are hard to recruit and retain because they can make better salaries working industry jobs in their fields, leaving students without mentors who look like them. In general, the experts raised concerns about CTE instructors lacking professional development, including on culturally responsive teaching.

The research brief also suggested that Black communities don't always trust CTE programs because historically, schools funneled Black students into low-quality technical programs. CTE programs hold a stigma for some potential students who still view them as pathways for students of color considered unlikely to attend college rather than a viable career step that doesn't preclude higher education, the brief said.

Every so often, a new story makes the rounds about how Americans without four-year college degrees can still make six-figure salaries. Take this piece from LendingTree, which highlights elevator installers and repairers—47.5 percent of whom earn more than $100,000 a year without a bachelor's degree. It's the kind of story that spreads quickly: hope for the non-college majority, proof that not all good jobs require a diploma.

I'm glad these stories exist. They broaden people's sense of possibility in the labor market. But they also tend to distort the conversation.

The truth is that workers with bachelor's degrees still earn significantly more, on average, than those who lack them. The median annual income for someone with a bachelor's degree is about $80,000, according to Federal Reserve Bank of New York data. Compare that with $47,000 as the median income for those whose education ended at high school.

And while there are exceptions in certain trades, only 9 percent of workers without a bachelor's degree earned $100,000 or more in 2023, according to the LendingTree analysis of Census Bureau data.

Put differently: If you're betting on getting a six-figure salary without a bachelor's degree, your odds are 1 in 10.

The odds of making six figures jump to about 1 in 3 for mid-career college graduates, and about half of those with advanced degrees earn $100,000 or more, according to College Board research.

That doesn't make the trades any less valuable. But it does mean we need both/and reasoning. Both college degrees and skilled trades can lead to meaningful, well-compensated careers. The danger is when we pit them against each other—or worse, when media stories imply that skipping college is a guaranteed ticket to financial security.

. . .

This is the real lesson. Higher education is not a binary choice—degree or no degree. It is a continuum of learning opportunities, from apprenticeships and certificates to associate degrees, bachelor's degrees, and graduate study.

We should celebrate the fact that well-structured apprenticeships exist. In fact, we need more of them. They combine hands-on experience with classroom learning and often lead to strong wages and steady careers. But they also demand rigorous study, licensing exams, and continual updating of skills. That looks a lot like higher education—even if it doesn't come packaged as a four-year degree.

Meanwhile, college degrees continue to deliver broad, long-term benefits. Beyond higher median wages, they offer resilience in downturns, open opportunities for career changes, and provide access to professions in which a degree is required. When the labor market shifts—as it inevitably does—college graduates generally have more mobility.

. . .

The healthiest labor market—and the most resilient society—depends on a mix of college and the trades.

. . .

The choice isn't "degree or no degree." It's how best to combine education and experience to build a career. For some, that will mean starting in a trade and later pursuing a degree. For others, it will mean four years of college before stepping into the workforce. For just about everyone, continual upgrading of skills will be a must.