Expected Return

Definition

Expected return is the anticipated profit or loss from an investment, calculated as the weighted average of all possible returns, where each return is weighted by its probability of occurrence. This concept is vital for assessing investment opportunities and understanding the relationship between risk and return, as it helps investors make informed decisions about where to allocate their resources.

5 Must Know Facts For Your Next Test

1. Expected return can be calculated using historical data or projected future returns, allowing investors to estimate potential performance over time.
2. Investors use expected return to evaluate and compare different investment options, considering both potential returns and associated risks.
3. Higher expected returns often correlate with higher levels of risk; thus, understanding risk tolerance is crucial for making sound investment choices.
4. In the context of WACC, expected return plays a key role in determining the cost of equity, which impacts a company's overall capital costs and investment decisions.
5. Expected return is integral to portfolio management, guiding investors in constructing diversified portfolios that align with their financial goals and risk appetite.

Review Questions

• How does expected return influence investment decision-making for investors?
  • Expected return significantly influences investment decision-making by providing a basis for evaluating potential investments. Investors assess the expected return relative to the associated risks to determine if an investment aligns with their financial goals and risk tolerance. By calculating expected returns, they can prioritize investments that offer higher anticipated profits while managing their exposure to risk.
• Discuss how the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) incorporates expected return in its calculations.
  • The Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) incorporates expected return by calculating it based on an asset's systematic risk as represented by its beta coefficient. The CAPM formula considers the risk-free rate, the expected market return, and the asset's beta to derive the expected return. This model helps investors understand how much return they should expect for taking on additional market risk compared to a risk-free investment.
• Evaluate the implications of expected return on a company's WACC and overall financial strategy.
  • The implications of expected return on a company's WACC are significant as it directly affects the cost of equity, which is a component of WACC. A higher expected return usually leads to a higher cost of equity, which can increase WACC and impact a company's investment decisions. Companies aim to maintain an optimal WACC that aligns with their financial strategy, ensuring that they can fund new projects at a cost-effective rate while achieving adequate returns for investors. Understanding these relationships helps firms navigate financial planning and performance assessments.

Related terms

Risk Premium: The additional return expected from an investment compared to a risk-free rate, compensating investors for taking on additional risk.

Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM): A financial model used to determine the expected return on an asset, based on its systematic risk relative to the market.

WACC (Weighted Average Cost of Capital): The average rate of return a company is expected to pay its security holders to finance its assets, reflecting the cost of equity and debt.