🏪International Financial Markets Unit 4 – Exchange Rates: Determination & Forecasting

Key Concepts in Exchange Rates

• Exchange rate represents the value of one currency in terms of another currency
• Nominal exchange rate refers to the quoted price of one currency in terms of another currency (USD/EUR)
• Real exchange rate adjusts the nominal exchange rate for differences in price levels between countries
• Appreciation occurs when a currency increases in value relative to another currency
• Depreciation happens when a currency decreases in value relative to another currency
• Bilateral exchange rate involves the exchange of one currency for another between two countries
• Multilateral exchange rate considers the weighted average of a country's currency relative to a basket of other currencies

Factors Influencing Exchange Rates

• Inflation differentials between countries affect exchange rates as higher inflation typically leads to currency depreciation
• Interest rate differentials impact exchange rates as higher interest rates attract foreign capital, leading to currency appreciation
  • Investors seek higher returns on their investments
  • Central banks may adjust interest rates to influence exchange rates
• Economic growth and productivity influence exchange rates as stronger economic performance generally leads to currency appreciation
• Balance of payments, which includes the current account and capital account, affects exchange rate dynamics
  • Current account surpluses (deficits) can lead to currency appreciation (depreciation)
  • Capital inflows (outflows) can cause currency appreciation (depreciation)
• Political stability and geopolitical events can impact exchange rates by influencing investor confidence and capital flows
• Monetary policy decisions by central banks, such as quantitative easing or currency interventions, can affect exchange rates
• Speculation and market sentiment can lead to short-term fluctuations in exchange rates

Exchange Rate Systems and Regimes

• Fixed exchange rate system involves pegging a currency's value to another currency or a basket of currencies
  • Requires central bank intervention to maintain the fixed rate
  • Provides stability but limits monetary policy flexibility
• Floating exchange rate system allows the market forces of supply and demand to determine the exchange rate
  • Offers monetary policy autonomy but can lead to exchange rate volatility
• Managed float regime combines elements of fixed and floating systems, with occasional central bank intervention
• Currency board arrangement is a stricter form of a fixed exchange rate system, requiring full backing of the domestic currency by foreign reserves
• Dollarization occurs when a country adopts a foreign currency (often the US dollar) as its official currency
• Optimal currency area theory suggests that countries with similar economic characteristics may benefit from sharing a common currency (Eurozone)

Exchange Rate Determination Models

• Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) theory suggests that exchange rates should adjust to equalize the prices of goods and services across countries
  • Absolute PPP compares the price levels directly
  • Relative PPP focuses on the rate of change in prices
• Interest Rate Parity (IRP) theory proposes that the difference in interest rates between two countries should equal the expected change in the exchange rate
  • Covered Interest Rate Parity (CIRP) involves the use of forward contracts to hedge against exchange rate risk
  • Uncovered Interest Rate Parity (UIRP) assumes that the expected future spot rate will adjust to equalize returns
• Monetary approach to exchange rate determination emphasizes the role of money supply and demand in determining exchange rates
• Portfolio balance approach considers the impact of financial assets and liabilities on exchange rate determination
• Fundamental analysis examines economic, financial, and other relevant factors to determine the fair value of a currency

Forecasting Exchange Rates

• Technical analysis uses past price and volume data to identify patterns and predict future exchange rate movements
  • Chartists analyze price charts, trendlines, and technical indicators (moving averages, oscillators)
  • Assumes that market psychology and investor behavior can be captured in price patterns
• Fundamental analysis involves forecasting exchange rates based on economic and financial factors
  • Considers variables such as inflation, interest rates, GDP growth, and balance of payments
  • Relies on macroeconomic models and theories to estimate fair value
• Time series models, such as autoregressive (AR) and moving average (MA) models, use historical data to forecast future exchange rates
• Econometric models incorporate multiple variables and statistical techniques to forecast exchange rates
  • Examples include vector autoregression (VAR) and error correction models (ECM)
• Consensus forecasts aggregate the predictions of multiple analysts or forecasters to provide a collective view on future exchange rates
• Scenario analysis involves considering different possible outcomes and their potential impact on exchange rates

Exchange Rate Risk and Management

• Transaction exposure arises from the impact of exchange rate fluctuations on the value of foreign currency-denominated transactions
  • Affects the cash flows and profitability of international trade and investments
  • Can be managed through hedging techniques such as forward contracts, options, and swaps
• Translation exposure (accounting exposure) refers to the impact of exchange rate changes on the reported financial statements of multinational corporations
  • Arises from the need to translate foreign currency-denominated assets and liabilities into the home currency
  • Can be managed through balance sheet hedging and functional currency designation
• Economic exposure (operating exposure) captures the long-term impact of exchange rate changes on a company's competitive position and cash flows
  • Affects the firm's profitability, market share, and strategic decisions
  • Can be managed through operational strategies such as diversification, pricing policies, and sourcing decisions
• Hedging strategies aim to mitigate exchange rate risk by taking offsetting positions in financial instruments
  • Forward contracts lock in an exchange rate for a future transaction
  • Currency options provide the right, but not the obligation, to buy or sell a currency at a predetermined rate
  • Cross-currency swaps involve the exchange of principal and interest payments in different currencies
• Natural hedging involves matching foreign currency inflows and outflows to minimize net exposure
• Currency diversification spreads exchange rate risk across multiple currencies to reduce overall volatility

Real-World Applications and Case Studies

• Multinational corporations (MNCs) face exchange rate risk in their global operations and investments
  • Case study: Nestle's foreign exchange risk management strategy
  • Techniques used: hedging, netting, and currency diversification
• Central banks intervene in foreign exchange markets to influence exchange rates and maintain stability
  • Case study: Swiss National Bank's currency interventions to limit Swiss franc appreciation
  • Tools used: foreign exchange reserves, interest rate adjustments, and verbal interventions
• Currency crises occur when a country experiences a sudden and significant depreciation of its currency
  • Case study: Asian financial crisis (1997-1998) and its impact on exchange rates and economies
  • Causes: unsustainable current account deficits, excessive foreign debt, and speculative attacks
• Exchange rate policies can be used as a tool for economic growth and competitiveness
  • Case study: China's managed exchange rate regime and its impact on global trade imbalances
  • Debate: currency manipulation versus economic development strategy
• Carry trades exploit interest rate differentials by borrowing in low-yielding currencies and investing in high-yielding currencies
  • Case study: Yen carry trade and its impact on global financial markets
  • Risks: sudden exchange rate movements and carry trade unwinding

Advanced Topics and Current Trends

• High-frequency trading (HFT) in foreign exchange markets uses algorithms to execute trades at high speeds
  • Impact on market liquidity, volatility, and price discovery
  • Regulatory challenges and concerns about market stability
• Cryptocurrencies and their potential impact on traditional foreign exchange markets
  • Bitcoin and other digital currencies as alternative investment assets
  • Regulatory and legal considerations for cryptocurrency exchanges and transactions
• Machine learning and artificial intelligence applications in exchange rate forecasting and trading
  • Neural networks and deep learning models for pattern recognition and prediction
  • Challenges in data quality, interpretability, and model validation
• Global imbalances and their implications for exchange rate stability
  • Current account surpluses and deficits across major economies
  • Debate on the sustainability of global imbalances and potential adjustment mechanisms
• Exchange rate pass-through and its impact on domestic prices and inflation
  • Degree to which exchange rate changes are reflected in import and consumer prices
  • Implications for monetary policy and inflation targeting
• Role of exchange rates in the transmission of monetary policy and international spillovers
  • Impact of central bank actions on exchange rates and global financial conditions
  • Policy coordination and challenges in an interconnected global economy