🏪International Financial Markets Unit 3 – Foreign Exchange Markets: Structure & Mechanics

What's This Unit All About?

• Focuses on the structure and mechanics of foreign exchange markets where currencies are traded
• Covers key concepts like exchange rates which represent the value of one currency in terms of another
• Explores major currency pairs traded in forex markets such as EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD
• Examines the role of key players in forex markets including banks, institutional investors, and retail traders
• Discusses how forex markets facilitate international trade and investment by enabling currency conversion
• Introduces common forex trading strategies used by market participants to profit from exchange rate fluctuations
• Highlights the risks and challenges associated with forex trading such as high volatility and leverage

Key Players in Forex Markets

• Banks are the largest participants in forex markets accounting for a significant portion of daily trading volume
  • Act as market makers by continuously providing bid and ask quotes for currency pairs
  • Facilitate forex transactions for clients including corporations, governments, and high-net-worth individuals
• Central banks play a crucial role in forex markets through monetary policy decisions and currency interventions
  • Set interest rates which influence currency demand and exchange rate movements
  • May intervene in forex markets to stabilize or manipulate exchange rates in line with policy objectives
• Hedge funds and other institutional investors actively participate in forex markets to generate returns
  • Employ various trading strategies based on macroeconomic analysis, technical indicators, or market sentiment
  • Often take large positions and contribute to market liquidity and price discovery
• Retail traders access forex markets through online trading platforms provided by brokers
  • Speculate on exchange rate movements using margin trading and leverage
  • Comprise a smaller share of overall forex market volume compared to institutional participants
• Corporations engage in forex markets to facilitate international business transactions and manage currency risk
  • Hedge future cash flows denominated in foreign currencies using forwards, futures, or options contracts
• Governments and supranational organizations (International Monetary Fund) participate in forex markets for policy purposes
  • Manage foreign exchange reserves to ensure financial stability and support domestic currency

How Forex Markets Work

• Forex markets are decentralized and operate 24 hours a day, 5 days a week across multiple time zones
• Trading occurs through electronic platforms that connect market participants worldwide
• Exchange rates are determined by supply and demand forces in the market
  • Factors influencing supply and demand include economic indicators, geopolitical events, and market sentiment
• Forex transactions involve simultaneously buying one currency and selling another, known as currency pairs
  • Each currency pair has a base currency (first currency) and a quote currency (second currency)
  • Exchange rates are quoted as the price of the base currency in terms of the quote currency
• Bid-ask spread represents the difference between the buying price (bid) and selling price (ask) of a currency pair
  • Market makers profit from the spread as compensation for providing liquidity
• Forex markets are highly liquid, with trillions of dollars in daily trading volume
  • High liquidity ensures tight spreads and efficient price discovery for major currency pairs
• Leverage is commonly used in forex trading, allowing traders to control larger positions with a smaller capital outlay
  • Leverage amplifies both potential profits and losses, increasing the risk of forex trading

Major Currency Pairs and Their Quirks

• EUR/USD is the most traded currency pair, representing the euro and US dollar
  • Sensitive to economic developments and monetary policy decisions in the Eurozone and United States
  • Tends to have tight spreads and high liquidity due to its popularity among traders
• USD/JPY, known as the "gopher," involves the US dollar and Japanese yen
  • Influenced by the interest rate differential between the US and Japan
  • Often exhibits low volatility and serves as a safe-haven currency during market turmoil
• GBP/USD, called the "cable," represents the British pound and US dollar
  • Reflects the economic and political dynamics between the United Kingdom and United States
  • Known for its sensitivity to Brexit-related developments and Bank of England monetary policy
• USD/CHF is the pairing of the US dollar and Swiss franc
  • Swiss franc is considered a safe-haven currency, attracting capital flows during market uncertainty
  • Influenced by the Swiss National Bank's monetary policy and interventions to limit franc appreciation
• USD/CAD involves the US dollar and Canadian dollar
  • Sensitive to oil price fluctuations as Canada is a major oil exporter
  • Affected by economic conditions and monetary policy in the United States and Canada
• AUD/USD and NZD/USD represent the Australian dollar and New Zealand dollar against the US dollar
  • Commodity-linked currencies influenced by global risk sentiment and commodity price movements
  • Offer higher yields compared to other major currencies due to relatively higher interest rates

Exchange Rates: The Basics

• Exchange rates represent the value of one currency in terms of another
  • Determined by supply and demand forces in the forex market
  • Influenced by economic indicators, geopolitical events, and market sentiment
• Nominal exchange rates are the actual rates quoted in the market without adjusting for inflation
  • Expressed as the price of one currency in terms of another (e.g., EUR/USD = 1.20)
• Real exchange rates take into account inflation differences between countries
  • Calculated as: $Real Exchange Rate = Nominal Exchange Rate × (Domestic Price Level ÷ Foreign Price Level)$
  • Provide a more accurate measure of a currency's purchasing power and competitiveness
• Appreciation refers to an increase in the value of a currency relative to another
  • Occurs when the demand for a currency exceeds its supply
  • Makes exports more expensive and imports cheaper for the appreciating currency's country
• Depreciation is a decrease in the value of a currency relative to another
  • Happens when the supply of a currency exceeds its demand
  • Makes exports cheaper and imports more expensive for the depreciating currency's country
• Exchange rate regimes determine how exchange rates are set and managed by countries
  • Floating exchange rates are determined by market forces without central bank intervention
  • Fixed exchange rates are pegged to another currency or a basket of currencies by the central bank
  • Managed float regimes involve occasional central bank intervention to influence exchange rates

Forex Trading Strategies

• Technical analysis involves studying past price and volume data to identify trading opportunities
  • Utilizes charts, trendlines, and technical indicators (moving averages, oscillators) to generate trading signals
  • Assumes that price patterns and trends tend to repeat themselves over time
• Fundamental analysis focuses on economic, financial, and geopolitical factors affecting currency values
  • Examines economic indicators (GDP, inflation, employment), monetary policy, and political events
  • Aims to determine whether a currency is overvalued or undervalued based on underlying fundamentals
• Carry trade strategy exploits interest rate differentials between countries
  • Involves borrowing in a low-yielding currency and investing in a high-yielding currency
  • Profits from the interest rate spread, assuming exchange rates remain stable
• Momentum trading seeks to capitalize on strong price trends in currency pairs
  • Enters long positions in currencies exhibiting upward momentum and short positions in currencies with downward momentum
  • Utilizes technical indicators (moving averages, MACD) to identify and follow trends
• Range trading takes advantage of currencies trading within a defined price range
  • Identifies support and resistance levels where price repeatedly bounces off
  • Buys near support levels and sells near resistance levels, expecting the range to hold
• News-based trading involves trading around economic news releases and geopolitical events
  • Aims to profit from the volatility and price movements triggered by high-impact news
  • Requires quick reaction and effective risk management to navigate fast-moving markets

Risks and Challenges in Forex

• Exchange rate risk arises from the potential adverse movements in currency values
  • Can lead to significant losses for traders and businesses with foreign currency exposure
  • Managed through hedging techniques such as forward contracts, options, and currency diversification
• Leverage risk is associated with the use of borrowed funds to amplify trading positions
  • High leverage can magnify both profits and losses, leading to rapid capital depletion
  • Requires prudent risk management and adherence to strict stop-loss levels
• Liquidity risk refers to the inability to execute trades at desired prices due to insufficient market depth
  • More prevalent in less-traded currency pairs or during periods of market stress
  • Can result in wider spreads, slippage, and difficulty in entering or exiting positions
• Counterparty risk involves the potential default or non-performance of the other party in a forex transaction
  • Particularly relevant when trading over-the-counter (OTC) derivatives or with unregulated brokers
  • Mitigated by choosing reputable and well-regulated forex brokers and clearing transactions through central counterparties
• Geopolitical risk encompasses the impact of political events and uncertainties on currency markets
  • Includes elections, referendums, conflicts, and changes in government policies
  • Can lead to sudden and significant currency fluctuations, requiring robust risk management strategies
• Regulatory risk relates to changes in laws, regulations, and policies affecting forex markets
  • May involve restrictions on leverage, capital requirements, or tax implications for forex traders
  • Necessitates staying informed about regulatory developments and adapting trading strategies accordingly

Real-World Applications and Case Studies

• Hedging foreign currency exposure: A multinational corporation (Coca-Cola) uses forex forwards to lock in exchange rates for future international sales, mitigating the impact of currency fluctuations on its financial statements
• Speculative trading: A hedge fund manager (George Soros) takes a large short position in the British pound (GBP) in anticipation of the currency's devaluation, profiting significantly when the pound eventually falls during the 1992 Black Wednesday event
• Central bank intervention: The Swiss National Bank (SNB) intervenes in the forex market to prevent excessive appreciation of the Swiss franc (CHF) by setting a minimum exchange rate against the euro (EUR) in 2011, effectively pegging the franc to the euro
• Carry trade: An individual investor borrows Japanese yen (JPY) at low-interest rates and invests the proceeds in higher-yielding Australian dollar (AUD) assets, profiting from the interest rate differential while being exposed to exchange rate risk
• Currency crisis: During the Asian financial crisis (1997-1998), several Southeast Asian currencies (Thai baht, Indonesian rupiah) experienced significant devaluation due to speculative attacks and capital outflows, leading to economic turmoil in the region
• Algorithmic trading: A quantitative trading firm develops and deploys automated trading strategies in the forex market, utilizing complex mathematical models and high-frequency trading algorithms to exploit market inefficiencies and generate profits
• Economic policy divergence: The divergence in monetary policy between the US Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank (ECB) leads to a strengthening of the US dollar (USD) against the euro (EUR) as higher US interest rates attract capital inflows
• Geopolitical event: The unexpected outcome of the Brexit referendum in 2016 triggers a sharp depreciation of the British pound (GBP) against major currencies as investors reassess the economic and political implications of the UK's decision to leave the European Union