🥇International Economics Unit 9 – Open Economy Macroeconomics

Key Concepts and Definitions

• Open economy macroeconomics studies the interactions between domestic and international markets and their impact on macroeconomic variables such as output, employment, and inflation
• The balance of payments (BOP) records all economic transactions between a country and the rest of the world over a specific period (usually a year)
• Exchange rates represent the price of one currency in terms of another and play a crucial role in determining the competitiveness of a country's exports and imports
  • Nominal exchange rate the current market price of one currency in terms of another
  • Real exchange rate the nominal exchange rate adjusted for differences in price levels between countries
• International trade involves the exchange of goods and services across borders and is driven by comparative advantage and specialization
• Capital flows refer to the movement of financial assets across borders and can take the form of foreign direct investment (FDI), portfolio investment, or official reserve transactions
• Monetary policy in open economies must consider the impact of exchange rates on domestic inflation and output
  • The Mundell-Fleming model a framework for analyzing the effectiveness of monetary and fiscal policy under different exchange rate regimes
• Fiscal policy in open economies can affect the trade balance and capital flows through changes in government spending and taxation

The Balance of Payments

• The BOP consists of three main accounts: the current account, the capital account, and the financial account
• The current account records transactions related to goods, services, primary income (investment income and compensation of employees), and secondary income (transfers)
  • A current account deficit occurs when a country's imports of goods, services, and transfers exceed its exports
  • A current account surplus occurs when a country's exports exceed its imports
• The capital account records transactions related to non-produced, non-financial assets (such as land or patents) and capital transfers (such as debt forgiveness)
• The financial account records transactions related to financial assets and liabilities, including direct investment, portfolio investment, and reserve assets
• The sum of the current account, capital account, and financial account balances should theoretically be zero, but statistical discrepancies often lead to a balancing item called "net errors and omissions"
• The BOP identity states that the current account balance plus the capital account balance must equal the financial account balance (CA + KA = FA)
• A country's net international investment position (NIIP) measures the difference between its external financial assets and liabilities at a given point in time

Exchange Rate Systems

• Exchange rate systems can be classified as fixed, floating, or managed
• Under a fixed exchange rate system, a country's currency is pegged to another currency or a basket of currencies at a predetermined rate
  • Central banks must intervene in foreign exchange markets to maintain the fixed rate by buying or selling foreign currency reserves
• Under a floating exchange rate system, the value of a currency is determined by market forces of supply and demand
  • Central banks do not actively intervene in foreign exchange markets under a pure floating system
• Managed exchange rate systems involve some degree of central bank intervention to influence the value of the currency (dirty float or crawling peg)
• The choice of exchange rate system depends on factors such as a country's economic size, openness, and vulnerability to external shocks
• The Impossible Trinity (or Trilemma) states that a country cannot simultaneously have free capital mobility, a fixed exchange rate, and an independent monetary policy
  • Countries must choose two out of the three objectives based on their economic priorities
• Currency crises can occur when there is a sudden and significant depreciation of a country's currency, often triggered by speculative attacks or unsustainable economic policies

International Trade and Capital Flows

• International trade is driven by comparative advantage, which arises from differences in relative productivity or factor endowments across countries
• The Ricardian model of trade explains how countries can benefit from specializing in the production of goods for which they have a comparative advantage
• The Heckscher-Ohlin model emphasizes the role of factor endowments (such as labor and capital) in determining a country's comparative advantage
• Trade liberalization the removal or reduction of barriers to international trade, such as tariffs and quotas can increase economic efficiency and welfare
  • Regional trade agreements (RTAs) such as free trade areas and customs unions promote trade liberalization among member countries
• Foreign direct investment (FDI) occurs when a firm establishes a lasting interest in a foreign enterprise through ownership or control
  • Horizontal FDI aims to serve the host country market, while vertical FDI seeks to exploit differences in factor costs across countries
• Portfolio investment involves the purchase of foreign financial assets, such as stocks and bonds, for the purpose of earning returns
• International capital flows can help countries finance investment, smooth consumption, and diversify risk, but they can also contribute to financial instability and crises

Monetary and Fiscal Policy in Open Economies

• Monetary policy in open economies must consider the impact of exchange rates on domestic inflation and output
  • Under a fixed exchange rate system, monetary policy is subordinated to the goal of maintaining the exchange rate peg
  • Under a floating exchange rate system, monetary policy can be used to target domestic objectives such as price stability or full employment
• The Mundell-Fleming model shows how the effectiveness of monetary and fiscal policy depends on the exchange rate regime and capital mobility
  • Under a fixed exchange rate and perfect capital mobility, fiscal policy is effective in stimulating output, while monetary policy is ineffective
  • Under a floating exchange rate and perfect capital mobility, monetary policy is effective in stimulating output, while fiscal policy is ineffective
• The Marshall-Lerner condition states that a currency depreciation will improve a country's trade balance if the sum of the absolute values of the export and import demand elasticities is greater than one
• The J-curve effect describes the time lag between a currency depreciation and the improvement in the trade balance, as import prices rise before export volumes adjust
• Fiscal policy in open economies can affect the trade balance and capital flows through changes in government spending and taxation
  • Expansionary fiscal policy can lead to a deterioration of the trade balance (twin deficits) and an appreciation of the real exchange rate
  • Contractionary fiscal policy can lead to an improvement in the trade balance and a depreciation of the real exchange rate

Global Economic Interdependence

• Globalization the increasing integration of economies through trade, investment, and technology has led to greater economic interdependence among countries
• Global value chains (GVCs) involve the fragmentation of production processes across countries, with each specializing in specific tasks or components
  • GVCs can increase efficiency and productivity but also make countries more vulnerable to supply chain disruptions
• International business cycles can be transmitted across countries through trade and financial linkages
  • Synchronized recessions or booms can occur when major economies experience similar economic conditions
• Global imbalances refer to persistent current account surpluses or deficits among major economies
  • The global saving glut hypothesis suggests that excess savings in emerging economies (particularly China) contributed to the US current account deficit and low global interest rates
• International policy coordination can help countries achieve better economic outcomes by internalizing the spillover effects of their policies
  • The G20 and international organizations like the IMF and WTO provide forums for policy coordination and cooperation
• The Triffin dilemma highlights the conflict between a country's national interests and its role as the issuer of a global reserve currency (such as the US dollar)

Challenges and Controversies

• Trade protectionism the use of barriers to restrict imports and protect domestic industries can lead to inefficiencies and retaliation by trading partners
  • The recent rise in protectionist measures (such as the US-China trade war) has raised concerns about the future of the global trading system
• Currency manipulation occurs when a country deliberately intervenes in foreign exchange markets to keep its currency undervalued and gain a competitive advantage in trade
  • The US has accused countries like China and Japan of currency manipulation, leading to tensions in international economic relations
• Global inequality the uneven distribution of income and wealth across countries and individuals remains a major challenge for the world economy
  • While globalization has helped reduce poverty in some developing countries (such as China and India), it has also contributed to rising inequality within and between countries
• The Dutch disease refers to the adverse effects of a resource boom on a country's manufacturing sector, as the appreciation of the real exchange rate makes exports less competitive
  • Resource-rich countries like Venezuela and Nigeria have struggled to diversify their economies and avoid the Dutch disease
• The Feldstein-Horioka puzzle refers to the observation that domestic saving and investment are highly correlated across countries, despite the increasing integration of global capital markets
  • This puzzle suggests that capital mobility may be lower than commonly assumed, with implications for the effectiveness of fiscal policy in open economies

Real-World Applications

• The European debt crisis (2009-2012) highlighted the challenges of managing a common currency (the euro) across countries with different economic conditions and fiscal policies
  • The crisis led to bailouts of countries like Greece and Ireland and raised questions about the sustainability of the European Monetary Union
• The East Asian financial crisis (1997-1998) was triggered by a sudden reversal of capital flows and currency devaluations in several Southeast Asian countries (such as Thailand and Indonesia)
  • The crisis demonstrated the risks of financial liberalization and the importance of sound macroeconomic policies and financial regulation
• The rise of China as a global economic power has had significant implications for international trade, investment, and global imbalances
  • China's large current account surpluses and accumulation of foreign exchange reserves have contributed to global trade tensions and concerns about the sustainability of the US dollar as the dominant reserve currency
• The COVID-19 pandemic has had a profound impact on the global economy, disrupting international trade, supply chains, and capital flows
  • The pandemic has highlighted the importance of international cooperation in addressing global challenges and the need for resilient and diversified economies
• The increasing adoption of digital currencies and financial technologies (such as blockchain) has the potential to transform the international monetary system and the conduct of monetary policy
  • Central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) and private cryptocurrencies (such as Bitcoin) could challenge the dominance of traditional fiat currencies and alter the landscape of international finance