🤼‍♂️International Conflict Unit 6 – Intrastate Conflicts: Civil Wars & Secession

Key Concepts & Definitions

• Intrastate conflict involves violence within a state's borders, often between the government and non-state actors (rebel groups, insurgents, separatists)
• Civil wars are large-scale armed conflicts between a state's government and one or more organized non-state actors, fought within the state's territory
  • Typically involve a challenge to the state's sovereignty or territorial integrity
  • Characterized by high levels of violence, civilian casualties, and displacement
• Secession refers to the formal withdrawal of a region or group from a state to establish a new independent state
  • Often driven by ethnic, religious, or political differences and grievances
  • Can lead to civil war if the central government opposes the secession attempt (South Sudan, Eritrea)
• Insurgency is an organized, protracted political-military struggle designed to weaken the control and legitimacy of an established government or occupying power
  • Insurgents often use guerrilla warfare tactics and seek to win popular support
• Separatism is the advocacy for a group or region to secede from a larger state and form an independent nation
  • Separatist movements often have distinct ethnic, linguistic, religious, or cultural identities (Kurds, Tamils)

Historical Context

• Intrastate conflicts have been a persistent feature of the international system, particularly since the end of World War II
• Decolonization in the mid-20th century led to the emergence of many new states, some with artificial borders and diverse populations, increasing the risk of internal conflicts
• The Cold War period saw many proxy wars and ideologically-driven insurgencies, with superpowers supporting opposing sides in civil wars (Angola, Nicaragua)
• The end of the Cold War and the collapse of the Soviet Union led to a proliferation of intrastate conflicts, particularly in the Balkans and former Soviet republics (Yugoslavia, Chechnya)
• Globalization and the rise of non-state actors have changed the nature of intrastate conflicts, with increased transnational dimensions and involvement of external actors
• Many contemporary intrastate conflicts are rooted in historical grievances, unresolved disputes, and legacies of colonialism and authoritarianism (Myanmar, Syria)

Causes & Triggers

• Political exclusion and marginalization of certain groups can fuel grievances and drive them to take up arms against the state
  • Lack of representation, discrimination, and human rights abuses can mobilize opposition
• Economic inequalities and uneven development can create resentment and a sense of relative deprivation among disadvantaged groups
  • Poverty, unemployment, and lack of opportunities can make individuals more susceptible to recruitment by rebel groups
• Identity-based factors, such as ethnicity, religion, and language, can be powerful mobilizing forces in intrastate conflicts
  • Groups may seek greater autonomy, self-determination, or secession based on their distinct identities (Kurds, Tamils)
• Weak or failed states with limited capacity to provide security, services, and legitimacy are more vulnerable to internal conflicts
  • Corruption, ineffective governance, and lack of rule of law can erode public trust and create power vacuums
• External actors can play a role in triggering or exacerbating intrastate conflicts through military interventions, arms transfers, or support for proxies
  • Regional powers and global superpowers may have strategic interests in the outcome of civil wars
• Specific events or shocks, such as contested elections, assassinations, or economic crises, can act as triggers for the outbreak of violence
  • These flashpoints can rapidly escalate tensions and mobilize opposition against the government (Tunisia, Libya)

Dynamics of Intrastate Conflicts

• Intrastate conflicts often involve complex webs of actors with shifting alliances and agendas
  • Multiple rebel groups, militias, and factions may be involved, each with their own goals and tactics
• Civilians are frequently targeted by armed groups, leading to high levels of casualties, displacement, and humanitarian crises
  • Tactics such as ethnic cleansing, forced recruitment, and sexual violence are used to terrorize and control populations
• Intrastate conflicts can be protracted and difficult to resolve, with cycles of violence and fragile peace agreements
  • Warring parties may have entrenched positions and see the conflict as a zero-sum game
• Control over natural resources, such as oil, diamonds, and timber, can fuel and prolong conflicts
  • Armed groups may seek to capture resource-rich areas to finance their operations and gain political leverage (Sierra Leone, Democratic Republic of Congo)
• Intrastate conflicts often have regional spillover effects, with refugees, arms flows, and instability spreading across borders
  • Neighboring states may be drawn into the conflict or face their own security challenges as a result (Rwanda, Afghanistan)
• Peace processes and conflict resolution efforts can be complex and fragile, requiring the engagement of multiple stakeholders and the addressing of underlying grievances
  • Power-sharing arrangements, security sector reform, and transitional justice are key components of post-conflict peacebuilding (Bosnia and Herzegovina, Colombia)

Major Players & Stakeholders

• National governments are central actors in intrastate conflicts, seeking to maintain their authority and territorial integrity
  • They may use military force, negotiations, or a combination of both to address the conflict
• Rebel groups and insurgents are the main challengers to state authority, fighting for political, economic, or social objectives
  • They may have varying levels of organization, popular support, and external backing (FARC in Colombia, Taliban in Afghanistan)
• Ethnic, religious, and linguistic groups are often key stakeholders in intrastate conflicts, particularly in cases of separatism or autonomy struggles
  • Their grievances and aspirations can drive the conflict and shape its dynamics (Kurds in Iraq and Turkey, Tamils in Sri Lanka)
• Civil society organizations, including NGOs, religious institutions, and community groups, can play important roles in conflict resolution and peacebuilding
  • They may provide humanitarian assistance, facilitate dialogue, or advocate for human rights and justice
• External actors, such as regional powers, global superpowers, and international organizations, can have significant influence on the course and outcome of intrastate conflicts
  • They may provide diplomatic, economic, or military support to warring parties or engage in mediation and peacekeeping efforts (UN, AU, NATO)
• Diaspora communities can be influential stakeholders, providing financial and political support to armed groups or advocating for international intervention
  • They may also play a role in post-conflict reconstruction and reconciliation (Irish-Americans in Northern Ireland conflict, Tamils in Sri Lankan civil war)

Case Studies

• Syrian Civil War (2011-present)
  • Began as peaceful protests against the Assad regime, escalated into a complex multi-sided conflict involving government forces, rebel groups, jihadist organizations, and external powers
  • Over 500,000 killed, millions displaced, and significant regional and global implications
• Rwandan Genocide (1994)
  • Ethnic conflict between Hutu and Tutsi groups, fueled by colonial legacies and political manipulation
  • Approximately 800,000 Tutsis and moderate Hutus killed in 100 days, with limited international intervention
• Yugoslav Wars (1991-2001)
  • Series of conflicts in the former Yugoslavia, driven by ethnic tensions and nationalist aspirations following the country's breakup
  • Includes the Bosnian War, Croatian War of Independence, and Kosovo War, with significant civilian casualties and war crimes
• Colombian Civil War (1964-2016)
  • Conflict between the Colombian government, left-wing guerrilla groups (FARC, ELN), and right-wing paramilitaries
  • Fueled by ideological differences, drug trafficking, and land disputes, with over 200,000 killed and millions displaced
• Sri Lankan Civil War (1983-2009)
  • Conflict between the Sri Lankan government and the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE), who sought an independent state for the Tamil minority
  • Characterized by guerrilla warfare, suicide bombings, and human rights abuses, with an estimated 100,000 killed

International Response & Intervention

• United Nations plays a central role in addressing intrastate conflicts through diplomatic efforts, peacekeeping missions, and humanitarian assistance
  • UN Security Council can authorize military interventions or impose sanctions to maintain international peace and security
• Regional organizations, such as the African Union, European Union, and Arab League, are increasingly involved in conflict prevention, management, and resolution
  • They may deploy peacekeeping forces, facilitate peace talks, or provide economic and political support to conflict-affected states (AMISOM in Somalia, ECOWAS in West Africa)
• International criminal tribunals and courts, such as the International Criminal Court (ICC), seek to hold perpetrators of war crimes, crimes against humanity, and genocide accountable
  • They aim to provide justice for victims and deter future atrocities (ICTY for former Yugoslavia, ICTR for Rwanda)
• Humanitarian organizations, such as the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) and Médecins Sans Frontières (MSF), provide life-saving assistance to civilians affected by conflicts
  • They face challenges in accessing conflict zones and maintaining neutrality and impartiality
• Diplomatic efforts, including mediation, negotiation, and peace talks, are crucial for resolving intrastate conflicts and achieving sustainable peace
  • Third-party mediators, such as states, NGOs, or prominent individuals, can facilitate dialogue and compromise between warring parties (Norway in Sri Lanka, Sant'Egidio in Mozambique)
• Military interventions by external actors can have significant impacts on the course and outcome of intrastate conflicts
  • They may aim to protect civilians, support one side, or enforce peace agreements, but can also have unintended consequences and escalate violence (NATO in Libya, Russia in Syria)

Consequences & Aftermath

• Intrastate conflicts result in significant loss of life, with civilians often bearing the brunt of violence and suffering
  • They can lead to mass atrocities, ethnic cleansing, and genocide, with long-lasting trauma and social divisions
• Displacement is a major consequence of intrastate conflicts, with millions forced to flee their homes and seek refuge within their country or across borders
  • Refugees and internally displaced persons (IDPs) face challenges in accessing basic services, livelihoods, and durable solutions (Syrian refugees, Rohingya in Myanmar)
• Intrastate conflicts can have devastating impacts on a country's economy, infrastructure, and development
  • They disrupt trade, investment, and social services, setting back progress and exacerbating poverty and inequality
• Intrastate conflicts often result in the fragmentation of state institutions and the erosion of social cohesion
  • They can lead to the emergence of parallel governance structures, such as rebel-held territories or autonomous regions (Somaliland, Nagorno-Karabakh)
• Post-conflict reconstruction and peacebuilding are complex and long-term processes that require addressing the root causes of the conflict and promoting reconciliation
  • They involve rebuilding infrastructure, reforming institutions, and supporting social and economic recovery (Rwanda, Sierra Leone)
• Transitional justice mechanisms, such as truth commissions, reparations, and memorialization, are important for acknowledging past abuses and promoting healing and accountability
  • They can help societies come to terms with their history and build a shared future (South African Truth and Reconciliation Commission, Guatemalan Commission for Historical Clarification)

Current Trends & Future Outlook

• Intrastate conflicts are becoming increasingly complex and internationalized, with the involvement of multiple state and non-state actors
  • The lines between internal and external conflicts are blurring, with regional and global implications
• The rise of violent extremism and terrorism has added a new dimension to intrastate conflicts, with groups like ISIS and Al-Qaeda exploiting instability and weak governance
  • Countering violent extremism requires a comprehensive approach that addresses the underlying drivers of radicalization
• Climate change and environmental degradation are emerging as potential drivers of intrastate conflicts, particularly in resource-scarce and fragile contexts
  • Competition over water, land, and other natural resources can exacerbate existing tensions and create new vulnerabilities (Darfur, Sahel)
• Advances in technology, such as social media and drones, are changing the nature of intrastate conflicts and the ways in which they are fought and perceived
  • They can be used to spread misinformation, recruit fighters, or carry out attacks, but also to document abuses and mobilize support for peace
• The international community faces challenges in effectively preventing, managing, and resolving intrastate conflicts, particularly in the face of competing interests and limited resources
  • There is a need for more inclusive, locally-owned, and sustainable approaches to conflict resolution and peacebuilding
• The future of intrastate conflicts will depend on addressing the underlying drivers of violence, promoting good governance and inclusive development, and strengthening international cooperation and norms
  • This requires a long-term commitment to conflict prevention, early warning, and support for resilient and peaceful societies