🥨Intermediate Macroeconomic Theory Unit 10 – International Trade and Finance

Key Concepts and Theories

• International trade involves the exchange of goods and services across national borders
• Comparative advantage occurs when a country can produce a good or service at a lower opportunity cost than another country
  • Leads to specialization and more efficient allocation of resources
• Absolute advantage refers to a country's ability to produce a good or service using fewer resources than another country
• Heckscher-Ohlin model suggests countries export goods that use their abundant factors intensively and import goods that use their scarce factors intensively
• Gravity model of trade predicts bilateral trade flows based on the economic sizes and distance between two countries
• Terms of trade measures the ratio of export prices to import prices for a country
• Tariffs are taxes imposed on imported goods to protect domestic industries or generate revenue
• Quotas limit the quantity or value of goods that can be imported or exported during a particular period

Global Economic Landscape

• Global economy characterized by increasing interconnectedness and interdependence among countries
• Rapid growth of emerging markets (China, India) has shifted the balance of economic power
• Developed countries (United States, European Union, Japan) still play a significant role in the global economy
• International trade accounts for a substantial portion of global GDP
• Foreign direct investment (FDI) involves companies investing in production facilities or assets in other countries
• Global supply chains have become more complex and fragmented, with production processes spread across multiple countries
• Trade in services (financial, telecommunications, tourism) has grown rapidly alongside trade in goods
• Economic globalization has led to increased competition and the need for countries to specialize in areas of comparative advantage

Trade Models and Comparative Advantage

• Ricardian model of comparative advantage demonstrates how countries can benefit from specialization and trade based on differences in labor productivity
  • Example: Country A has a comparative advantage in producing wine, while Country B has a comparative advantage in producing cloth
• Heckscher-Ohlin model emphasizes the role of factor endowments (land, labor, capital) in determining a country's comparative advantage
• Specific factors model assumes that some factors of production are specific to certain industries, while others are mobile across industries
• Intra-industry trade involves the exchange of similar products within the same industry (automobiles)
• New trade theory explains trade based on economies of scale, product differentiation, and imperfect competition
• Gravity model of trade considers factors such as economic size, distance, and cultural similarities in predicting trade flows between countries
• Comparative advantage can change over time due to factors such as technological advancements, changes in resource endowments, or shifts in consumer preferences

Exchange Rates and Currency Markets

• Exchange rate is the price of one currency in terms of another currency
• Nominal exchange rate is the rate at which one currency can be exchanged for another at a given point in time
• Real exchange rate adjusts the nominal exchange rate for differences in price levels between countries
• Appreciation occurs when a currency increases in value relative to another currency, while depreciation occurs when a currency decreases in value
• Floating exchange rates are determined by market forces of supply and demand, while fixed exchange rates are pegged to another currency or a basket of currencies
• Purchasing power parity (PPP) theory suggests that exchange rates should adjust to equalize the prices of goods and services across countries
• Interest rate parity (IRP) condition states that the difference in interest rates between two countries should equal the expected change in the exchange rate
• Currency markets are influenced by factors such as economic growth, inflation, interest rates, and political stability

Balance of Payments

• Balance of payments records a country's transactions with the rest of the world over a given period
• Current account includes trade in goods and services, primary income (investment income), and secondary income (transfers)
  • Trade balance is the difference between exports and imports of goods
• Capital account records capital transfers and the acquisition or disposal of non-produced, non-financial assets
• Financial account tracks international capital flows, such as foreign direct investment, portfolio investment, and reserve assets
• Balance of payments identity states that the current account balance plus the capital account balance must equal the financial account balance
• Current account deficit occurs when a country's imports exceed its exports and net income from abroad
• Current account surplus occurs when a country's exports exceed its imports and net income from abroad
• Persistent current account imbalances can lead to changes in exchange rates, international competitiveness, and global economic stability

International Financial Institutions

• International Monetary Fund (IMF) promotes global monetary cooperation, financial stability, and sustainable economic growth
  • Provides loans to countries experiencing balance of payments difficulties or economic crises
• World Bank Group focuses on poverty reduction and economic development in low- and middle-income countries
  • Offers loans, grants, and technical assistance for projects in areas such as infrastructure, education, and healthcare
• World Trade Organization (WTO) oversees the global trading system and promotes trade liberalization
  • Provides a framework for negotiating trade agreements and resolving trade disputes
• Bank for International Settlements (BIS) serves as a bank for central banks and promotes international monetary and financial cooperation
• Regional development banks (African Development Bank, Asian Development Bank) support economic and social development in specific regions
• International financial institutions play a crucial role in promoting economic stability, development, and cooperation among countries

Trade Policies and Agreements

• Trade policies are measures taken by governments to regulate international trade and protect domestic industries
• Tariffs are taxes imposed on imported goods to raise revenue or protect domestic producers
  • Can lead to higher prices for consumers and reduced trade flows
• Non-tariff barriers include quotas, subsidies, and regulations that restrict or discourage imports
• Free trade agreements (FTAs) eliminate or reduce trade barriers between participating countries (NAFTA, ASEAN)
• Preferential trade agreements (PTAs) provide preferential market access to certain countries or groups of countries
• Multilateral trade agreements involve many countries and aim to promote global trade liberalization (WTO agreements)
• Trade policies can have both positive and negative effects on economic growth, employment, and income distribution within and across countries
• Debate over the benefits and costs of trade liberalization versus protectionism continues to shape trade policies and agreements

Global Economic Challenges and Opportunities

• Income inequality has risen within and across countries, leading to concerns about the distribution of the benefits of globalization
• Environmental sustainability and climate change pose significant challenges for the global economy
  • Need for countries to balance economic growth with the protection of natural resources and the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions
• Technological advancements (automation, artificial intelligence) are transforming industries and labor markets, creating both opportunities and challenges
• Demographic shifts, such as aging populations in developed countries and growing youth populations in developing countries, have implications for global economic growth and social welfare systems
• Global economic shocks, such as financial crises or pandemics (COVID-19), can have far-reaching and long-lasting impacts on trade, investment, and economic growth
• Geopolitical tensions and trade disputes can disrupt global supply chains and create uncertainty in the global economic environment
• Opportunities for global economic growth and development include the rise of the middle class in emerging markets, the expansion of digital trade and e-commerce, and the potential for increased international cooperation on shared challenges