3.3 Incumbency advantage and electoral trends
3 min read•july 30, 2024
Congressional elections heavily favor incumbents, with often exceeding 90% in the House. This advantage stems from factors like , fundraising abilities, and established voter support, making it challenging for challengers to win.
The power of incumbency has grown over time, impacting representation and accountability. While it provides stability, it can also lead to less competitive elections and reduced responsiveness to constituents, prompting debates about potential reforms to level the playing field.
Incumbency Advantage in Congress
Definition and Key Factors
Top images from around the web for Definition and Key Factors
Political Participation: How do we choose our representatives through elections and voting ... View original
Is this image relevant?
Congress: How do we choose our representatives? – United States Government View original
Is this image relevant?
Congressional Elections – American Government View original
Is this image relevant?
Political Participation: How do we choose our representatives through elections and voting ... View original
Is this image relevant?
Congress: How do we choose our representatives? – United States Government View original
Is this image relevant?
1 of 3
Top images from around the web for Definition and Key Factors
Political Participation: How do we choose our representatives through elections and voting ... View original
Is this image relevant?
Congress: How do we choose our representatives? – United States Government View original
Is this image relevant?
Congressional Elections – American Government View original
Is this image relevant?
Political Participation: How do we choose our representatives through elections and voting ... View original
Is this image relevant?
Congress: How do we choose our representatives? – United States Government View original
Is this image relevant?
1 of 3
- refers to the electoral benefits that sitting members of Congress (incumbents) enjoy over challengers when running for re-election
- Key factors that contribute to the incumbency advantage:
- Name recognition
- Fundraising abilities
- for achievements in office
- Incumbents often have more campaign resources, experience, and established voter support compared to challengers, making it difficult for challengers to win
Growth and Extent of Incumbency Advantage
- The power of incumbency has grown significantly in recent decades
- Re-election rates for House incumbents consistently exceed 90% in most election cycles (1998-2020)
- Senate incumbents also enjoy high re-election rates, though not quite as high as in the House due to greater media scrutiny and challenger quality in statewide races
Factors for High Re-election Rates
Incumbent Resources and Fundraising Advantages
- Incumbents have access to official resources that can indirectly aid their campaigns and boost constituent support:
- Staff
- Office budgets
- Franking privileges (free mail)
- The ability to raise large sums of campaign funds allows incumbents to outspend challengers and dominate advertising
- Particularly from PACs and interest groups
Weak Challengers and Uncontested Races
- Weaker challengers are often deterred from running against incumbents, leaving them with inexperienced or underfunded opponents
- The prevalence of , where an incumbent faces no major party challenger, has increased in recent decades in the House
- In 2020, 15% of House incumbents ran unopposed by a major party challenger
District Boundaries and Incumbent Popularity
- of district boundaries to create safe seats for one party can insulate incumbents from electoral competition in many districts
- Incumbents can build up a "" distinct from their party's appeal through and credit claiming
- Direct mail, town halls, and securing particularistic benefits (federal projects, grants) for the district all help increase an incumbent's personal popularity with constituents
Trends in Congressional Elections
Rising Incumbent Re-election Rates Over Time
- The re-election rate for House incumbents has risen from around 75% in the 1950s to over 90% in most recent election cycles (1998-2020)
- Indicates a strengthening of the incumbency advantage
- Senate incumbents have also seen increasing re-election rates, though not as high as the House (75-85% in recent cycles)
Incumbent Defeats and Partisan Trends
- Despite high re-election rates, incumbents do still lose in a small percentage of races each cycle
- Often due to scandals, strong challengers, or major wave elections that favor the opposing party
- In 2018, a Democratic wave year, 30 House GOP incumbents lost re-election
- , where a voter supports different parties for President and Congress, has declined in recent elections
- Makes it harder for incumbents to rely on their personal vote to overcome in their state or district
Incumbency's Impact on Politics
Consequences for Representation and Accountability
- The electoral security of incumbents may reduce their incentives to be responsive to constituent preferences
- Allows them to prioritize other goals like pursuing their own policy interests
- Highly uncompetitive districts with safe incumbents can lead to more extreme partisan representation
- Incumbents fear primary challenges more than general election defeat
- Lack of competition and high re-election rates can lead to long-term incumbents building up seniority and disproportionate influence within Congress relative to newer members
Potential Reforms and Incumbent Opposition
- The incumbency advantage may hinder fair representation by making it more difficult for the partisan composition of Congress to change to reflect shifts in public preferences
- Scandals and corruption may be more likely when incumbents face little accountability from voters and believe they will not lose re-election
- Potential reforms to increase competition often face opposition from incumbents who benefit from the current system:
- Term limits
- Campaign finance restrictions
- Redistricting changes (independent commissions)
Key Terms to Review (23)
Constituency Service: Constituency service refers to the efforts made by elected officials, particularly members of Congress, to address the needs and concerns of their constituents. This includes providing assistance with government services, resolving issues related to federal agencies, and advocating for local interests. These activities are crucial for building a strong relationship between elected officials and the people they represent, often impacting electoral outcomes.
Credit Claiming: Credit claiming is a strategy used by elected officials, particularly incumbents, to take personal responsibility for government achievements or benefits that have occurred during their time in office. This tactic is crucial for building a positive public image and securing voter support, especially in the context of reelection campaigns. By highlighting their role in delivering specific programs or funding, incumbents can distinguish themselves from challengers and reinforce their incumbency advantage.
David Mayhew: David Mayhew is a prominent political scientist known for his influential work on the United States Congress, particularly regarding the behaviors and strategies of incumbents. He argues that members of Congress prioritize reelection above all else, leading to specific patterns in legislative behavior and electoral outcomes, which are important for understanding trends in political accountability, public opinion, and the dynamics of polarization.
Fundraising advantage: The fundraising advantage refers to the significant ability of incumbents to raise more money than their challengers in political elections. This financial edge allows incumbents to build a strong campaign presence through advertisements, outreach, and resources, ultimately enhancing their chances of reelection. The disparity in fundraising reflects both the established networks that incumbents can tap into and the perception of their existing political power.
Gerrymandering: Gerrymandering is the practice of manipulating electoral district boundaries to favor one political party over another. This tactic can significantly influence election outcomes and power dynamics within the legislative branches, affecting how representatives are elected and how diverse the representation is in government.
Incumbency Advantage: Incumbency advantage refers to the various benefits and privileges that current officeholders enjoy when running for re-election, making them more likely to win compared to challengers. This advantage arises from factors such as greater name recognition, established donor networks, and access to resources like campaign funding and government staff. These elements contribute significantly to electoral trends, where incumbents often dominate elections and influence the accountability mechanisms within the political landscape.
Incumbent defeats: Incumbent defeats refer to instances when a sitting elected official is ousted from their position during an election. This phenomenon is significant in understanding the dynamics of political power, voter behavior, and the effectiveness of incumbents in maintaining their seats. The frequency and nature of incumbent defeats can indicate shifts in electoral trends, public sentiment, and the overall political landscape.
Larry Sabato: Larry Sabato is a prominent American political scientist and professor at the University of Virginia, known for his expertise in American elections and political behavior. He founded the University of Virginia's Center for Politics and has become a well-known figure for his accurate election predictions and analysis of political trends, particularly in the context of incumbency advantage and electoral trends.
Media attention: Media attention refers to the focus that news outlets and other media platforms give to particular events, individuals, or issues. This term plays a significant role in shaping public perception and political discourse, especially regarding candidates and incumbents during elections. Increased media coverage often correlates with heightened visibility and can impact the electoral success of politicians, particularly those currently in office.
Name Recognition: Name recognition refers to the level of awareness that voters have regarding a political candidate’s name and brand. This factor plays a crucial role in electoral outcomes, as candidates with high name recognition are often favored in elections, especially among incumbents, where familiarity can translate into voter support and trust.
Partisan Trends: Partisan trends refer to the patterns of behavior and alignment among political parties and their supporters over time, particularly in relation to voting and policy preferences. These trends often reflect the increasing polarization between parties, leading to distinct ideological divides and impacting electoral outcomes, representation, and governance.
Personal Vote: A personal vote refers to the electoral decision made by voters based on their individual connection or relationship with a candidate, rather than party affiliation or policy positions. This type of voting often occurs when incumbents leverage their personal relationships, past service, or public image to sway voter opinions and influence election outcomes. Personal votes can significantly impact incumbency advantage, as voters may choose to support candidates they feel a personal bond with, leading to higher re-election rates for those incumbents.
Polarization: Polarization refers to the increasing ideological division and emotional distance between political parties or groups, leading to a lack of compromise and heightened partisanship. This growing divide has reshaped the political landscape, affecting legislative processes and party dynamics throughout the historical development of the U.S. Congress. As polarization intensifies, it influences voter behavior and election outcomes, contributing to incumbency advantages and shifting electoral trends.
Re-election rates: Re-election rates refer to the percentage of incumbents who successfully win their bid for re-election during electoral cycles. This concept is vital in understanding the incumbency advantage, as higher re-election rates often indicate that voters favor experienced politicians who have already established a presence and record in office. The factors contributing to these rates can include name recognition, access to campaign resources, and the perceived effectiveness of the incumbent.
Realignment: Realignment refers to a significant and lasting shift in the political landscape, often characterized by changes in party affiliation, voter behavior, and the overall political balance of power. This process can lead to new coalitions and altered priorities among parties, usually triggered by critical events, issues, or electoral cycles that reshape public opinion and voter loyalty.
Rising incumbent re-election rates: Rising incumbent re-election rates refer to the increasing percentage of sitting members of Congress who successfully win re-election in subsequent electoral cycles. This trend reflects the significant advantages that incumbents often hold, such as name recognition, established donor networks, and access to resources that can enhance their campaign effectiveness. Understanding this trend is crucial for analyzing electoral dynamics and the political landscape over time.
Safe Seat: A safe seat refers to a legislative district that is considered highly likely to be won by a particular political party, often due to a strong voter base and demographic alignment. These seats play a crucial role in the political landscape, as they provide incumbent politicians with a significant advantage in elections, ensuring their re-election and stability within the party structure.
Split-ticket voting: Split-ticket voting occurs when a voter selects candidates from different political parties for different offices on the same ballot. This behavior highlights the increasing independence of voters, as they choose candidates based on individual merit rather than strictly adhering to party lines. It reflects a trend in electoral behavior where voters are less likely to vote straight-ticket, showing a preference for bipartisan representation in government.
Swing voters: Swing voters are individuals who do not consistently vote for one political party and may be influenced by various factors in different elections. They often hold the balance of power in close elections, making them a critical focus for candidates and parties seeking to secure victory. Their preferences can shift from one election to another, which highlights the dynamic nature of voter behavior and the impact of political messaging on electoral outcomes.
Uncontested Races: Uncontested races refer to electoral contests in which a candidate runs without any opponents, resulting in a guaranteed victory. This situation often arises in political environments where incumbents hold significant advantages, leading to fewer challengers entering the race. Such races can impact voter turnout and the overall dynamics of elections, reflecting trends in political engagement and party strength.
Voter turnout: Voter turnout refers to the percentage of eligible voters who participate in an election, either by casting a ballot or registering to vote. It serves as a crucial indicator of civic engagement and democratic health, influencing various aspects like the incumbency advantage, the electoral process, and the relationship between public opinion and congressional behavior.
Wave election: A wave election is a significant electoral event in which one political party gains a substantial number of seats in the legislature, often at the expense of the opposing party. These elections typically reflect a shift in public sentiment and can lead to dramatic changes in the balance of power within Congress, impacting incumbency advantage and electoral trends for subsequent elections.
Weak challengers: Weak challengers refer to political candidates who run against incumbents but lack the necessary resources, support, or visibility to mount a serious campaign. These challengers often struggle with name recognition, fundraising capabilities, and organizational strength, which makes it difficult for them to effectively compete against well-established incumbents. The presence of weak challengers reinforces the incumbency advantage, as voters may perceive them as less viable options compared to sitting officeholders.