🤔Cognitive Psychology Unit 11 – Reasoning and Decision Making
Reasoning and decision-making are fundamental cognitive processes that shape our everyday choices and judgments. These skills involve using logic, evidence, and mental shortcuts to draw conclusions and select between alternatives, often under uncertainty and time pressure.
Understanding how we reason and decide can help us make better choices and avoid common pitfalls. From deductive logic to heuristics and biases, this topic explores the mental tools we use to navigate complex problems and the factors that influence our thinking.
Reasoning involves using logic and evidence to draw conclusions or make decisions
Deductive reasoning starts with a general principle and applies it to specific cases (All dogs are mammals. Spot is a dog. Therefore, Spot is a mammal)
Inductive reasoning begins with specific observations and generalizes to broader principles (Every swan I've seen is white. Therefore, all swans are probably white)
Abductive reasoning seeks the most likely explanation for a set of observations (The grass is wet. It probably rained last night)
Decision-making is the process of choosing between alternatives based on goals, values, and constraints
Normative models prescribe how decisions should be made under ideal conditions
Descriptive models aim to capture how people actually make decisions in real-world settings
Bounded rationality recognizes that human decision-making is limited by cognitive constraints (time, information, computational power)
Types of Reasoning
Analogical reasoning involves drawing parallels between two situations based on their shared relations or properties
Helps in problem-solving by applying solutions from one domain to another (using a chess strategy in business negotiations)
Causal reasoning seeks to identify cause-and-effect relationships between events or variables
Relies on cues such as temporal precedence, covariation, and mechanistic plausibility
Counterfactual reasoning involves imagining alternative outcomes or possibilities that did not actually occur (What if I had studied harder for the exam?)
Moral reasoning applies ethical principles to determine the rightness or wrongness of actions
Kohlberg's stages of moral development describe shifts from self-interest to universal ethical principles
Probabilistic reasoning deals with uncertainty and uses probability theory to quantify likelihood
Syllogistic reasoning evaluates the logical validity of arguments based on their structure (All A are B. All B are C. Therefore, all A are C)
Decision-Making Models
Expected utility theory assumes that people choose options with the highest probability-weighted average payoff
Utilities are subjective values placed on outcomes based on individual preferences
Prospect theory accounts for deviations from expected utility due to psychological biases
People are risk-averse for gains but risk-seeking for losses relative to a reference point
Satisficing suggests that people often settle for "good enough" options rather than optimizing
Recognition-primed decision-making relies on pattern matching and intuition based on prior experience
Commonly used by experts in time-pressured situations (firefighters, chess masters)
Naturalistic decision-making studies how people make decisions in real-world contexts with ill-defined goals, uncertainty, and high stakes
Multi-attribute utility theory evaluates options based on multiple criteria or dimensions
Each attribute is weighted by its relative importance to the decision-maker
Heuristic models propose that people use mental shortcuts or rules of thumb to simplify complex decisions
While efficient, heuristics can lead to systematic biases or errors in judgment
Cognitive Biases and Heuristics
Confirmation bias is the tendency to seek out or interpret information in ways that confirm one's preexisting beliefs
Anchoring and adjustment involve relying too heavily on an initial piece of information (the anchor) when making estimates
Availability heuristic judges the likelihood of events based on how easily examples come to mind
Can lead to overestimating the probability of vivid or recent events (plane crashes, shark attacks)
Representativeness heuristic assumes that things belonging to a category share essential features
Ignores base rates and can lead to conjunction fallacy (Linda problem)
Hindsight bias is the tendency to see past events as more predictable than they actually were
Framing effects occur when equivalent descriptions of a decision problem lead to different preferences
Presenting outcomes as gains or losses relative to a reference point alters risk preferences
Sunk cost fallacy is the tendency to continue investing in a losing proposition because of past investments
Planning fallacy underestimates the time needed to complete future tasks
Problem-Solving Strategies
Means-ends analysis involves setting subgoals to reduce the difference between the current state and the desired goal state
Working backward starts with the desired outcome and works back to identify the steps needed to reach it
Analogical problem solving maps the solution from a similar problem onto the current situation
Effective analogies capture the underlying structure or principles rather than surface features
Brainstorming generates a large quantity of potential solutions without evaluating them
Suspending judgment can facilitate creative thinking and novel ideas
Lateral thinking approaches problems indirectly and creatively by challenging assumptions
Provocation techniques introduce random or absurd elements to stimulate new perspectives
Divide and conquer breaks down complex problems into smaller, more manageable subproblems
Collaborative problem solving leverages the diverse knowledge and skills of multiple individuals
Effective teams establish clear roles, communicate openly, and manage conflict constructively
Factors Influencing Decision Making
Time pressure can lead to more heuristic processing and reliance on intuitive rather than analytical thinking
Emotions, both positive and negative, shape decision-making through effects on attention, memory, and risk perceptions
Anxiety promotes risk-averse choices while anger promotes risk-seeking
Social influences, such as conformity and obedience, can override individual judgment
Groupthink occurs when desire for harmony suppresses dissent and critical thinking
Cultural values and norms provide a framework for interpreting and responding to decision problems
Individualistic vs. collectivistic orientations affect whether choices optimize for the self or the group
Expertise enables more efficient and accurate decision-making within a domain
Novices rely more on general heuristics while experts use specialized knowledge
Age-related changes in cognitive function and emotional regulation can affect decision-making
Older adults show declines in fluid intelligence but gains in crystallized intelligence
Individual differences in cognitive style, personality, and motivation influence decision-making
Need for cognition reflects enjoyment of effortful thinking while need for closure reflects aversion to ambiguity
Real-World Applications
Medical decision-making involves high stakes, uncertainty, and time pressure
Heuristics like availability can lead to misdiagnosis or overtreatment
Legal decision-making by judges and juries is subject to biases like hindsight and anchoring
Instructions to consider alternative explanations can debias judgments
Political decision-making often relies on heuristic cues like party affiliation or candidate appearance
Framing effects can manipulate public opinion on issues like taxes or welfare
Organizational decision-making benefits from diverse perspectives and devil's advocacy
Structured analytic techniques like scenario planning can reduce groupthink
Consumer decision-making is influenced by framing, anchoring, and social proof
Choice architecture and nudges can steer people toward desired outcomes
Financial decision-making is prone to biases like overconfidence and loss aversion
Debiasing techniques include considering opportunity costs and diversification
Environmental decision-making requires balancing multiple stakeholders and long time horizons
Discounting of future outcomes leads to unsustainable resource use
Current Research and Future Directions
Dual-process theories distinguish between fast, intuitive thinking (System 1) and slow, deliberative thinking (System 2)
Interventions aim to engage System 2 to override biases and improve decision quality
Quantum cognition models use quantum probability theory to capture violations of classical probability in human judgment
Neuroimaging studies identify the neural basis of reasoning and decision-making
Prefrontal cortex is involved in executive control and value computation
Artificial intelligence and machine learning can aid human decision-making
Algorithms can detect patterns and make predictions from large datasets
Debiasing techniques aim to reduce the impact of cognitive biases on judgment and choice
Strategies include considering alternatives, taking an outside view, and using checklists
Nudge theory applies behavioral insights to design choice environments that encourage desirable outcomes
Defaults, framing, and social norms can influence behavior while preserving freedom of choice
Cognitive training interventions seek to improve reasoning and decision-making skills
Games and exercises can target specific abilities like working memory or logical reasoning
Wisdom research examines how people make sound judgments in the face of uncertainty and conflicting values
Proposed features of wisdom include perspectival flexibility, integration of emotion and reason, and concern for others