💹Business Economics Unit 13 – Economic Stability: Inflation & Unemployment

Key Concepts and Definitions

• Inflation refers to a sustained increase in the general price level of goods and services in an economy over time
• Deflation is the opposite of inflation, characterized by a decrease in the general price level
• Hyperinflation is an extremely high and accelerating rate of inflation, typically over 50% per month
• Unemployment represents the number of people in the labor force who are actively seeking work but unable to find employment
• The labor force consists of individuals who are either employed or actively seeking employment
• The unemployment rate is calculated by dividing the number of unemployed individuals by the total labor force and expressing it as a percentage
• Frictional unemployment occurs when workers are temporarily unemployed while searching for new jobs or transitioning between jobs
• Structural unemployment arises due to a mismatch between the skills of the unemployed and the requirements of available jobs

Causes and Types of Inflation

• Demand-pull inflation occurs when aggregate demand grows faster than aggregate supply, leading to higher prices
  • Factors contributing to demand-pull inflation include increased consumer spending, government spending, and investment
• Cost-push inflation happens when production costs rise, causing businesses to raise prices to maintain profitability
  • Examples of cost-push factors are rising raw material prices, higher wages, and increased taxes
• Built-in inflation refers to the self-perpetuating nature of inflation due to expectations of future price increases
  • Workers demand higher wages to keep up with rising prices, leading to further price increases by businesses
• Monetary inflation results from an excessive growth in the money supply, which leads to too much money chasing too few goods
• Imported inflation occurs when a country experiences higher prices due to increased costs of imported goods or a depreciation of its currency

Measuring Inflation and Its Effects

• The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the average change in prices paid by urban consumers for a basket of goods and services
  • The CPI basket includes items such as food, housing, transportation, and healthcare
• The Producer Price Index (PPI) measures the average change in prices received by domestic producers for their output
• The GDP deflator is a measure of the level of prices of all new, domestically produced, final goods and services in an economy
• Inflation erodes the purchasing power of money over time, reducing the amount of goods and services that can be bought with the same amount of money
• Inflation redistributes wealth from creditors to debtors, as the real value of debt decreases with rising prices
• Inflation can lead to uncertainty and distort economic decision-making, as it becomes difficult to predict future prices and costs
• High inflation rates can negatively impact economic growth, investment, and international competitiveness

Understanding Unemployment

• Unemployment represents the portion of the labor force that is willing and able to work but cannot find employment
• The natural rate of unemployment is the level of unemployment that persists even in a healthy economy due to frictional and structural factors
• Cyclical unemployment occurs during economic downturns when there is a decline in aggregate demand, leading to layoffs
• Underemployment refers to individuals who are employed but work fewer hours than desired or are in jobs that underutilize their skills
• Discouraged workers are individuals who have given up looking for work due to a lack of success and are not included in the official unemployment rate
• The labor force participation rate measures the proportion of the working-age population that is either employed or actively seeking employment

Types and Measurement of Unemployment

• Frictional unemployment is short-term unemployment that occurs when workers are searching for new jobs or transitioning between jobs
  • Examples include recent graduates looking for their first job or workers moving to a new city
• Structural unemployment arises due to a mismatch between the skills of the unemployed and the requirements of available jobs
  • This can be caused by technological advancements, changes in industry structure, or shifts in consumer preferences
• Seasonal unemployment occurs due to regular and predictable changes in labor demand throughout the year
  • Industries affected by seasonal unemployment include tourism, agriculture, and construction
• The unemployment rate is calculated by dividing the number of unemployed individuals by the total labor force and expressing it as a percentage
• The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) in the United States measures unemployment through a monthly survey called the Current Population Survey (CPS)
• The BLS classifies individuals as employed, unemployed, or not in the labor force based on their responses to the CPS

Relationship Between Inflation and Unemployment

• The Phillips curve suggests a short-run tradeoff between inflation and unemployment
  • According to this theory, lower unemployment is associated with higher inflation, and vice versa
• The long-run Phillips curve is vertical, implying that there is no permanent tradeoff between inflation and unemployment in the long run
• The non-accelerating inflation rate of unemployment (NAIRU) is the level of unemployment consistent with a stable rate of inflation
• Stagflation is a situation where an economy experiences both high inflation and high unemployment simultaneously
  • This challenges the traditional Phillips curve relationship and can be caused by supply shocks or structural issues
• Policymakers often face the challenge of balancing the goals of low inflation and low unemployment when making economic decisions

Government Policies and Economic Stability

• Fiscal policy involves the use of government spending and taxation to influence economic activity
  • Expansionary fiscal policy (increased spending or reduced taxes) can stimulate aggregate demand and reduce unemployment
  • Contractionary fiscal policy (decreased spending or increased taxes) can help control inflation by reducing aggregate demand
• Monetary policy refers to the actions taken by central banks to control the money supply and interest rates
  • Expansionary monetary policy (lowering interest rates or increasing the money supply) can stimulate borrowing and spending, reducing unemployment
  • Contractionary monetary policy (raising interest rates or decreasing the money supply) can help control inflation by reducing the money supply and aggregate demand
• Automatic stabilizers are government policies that automatically adjust to changes in economic conditions without direct intervention
  • Examples include progressive income taxes and unemployment insurance benefits
• Supply-side policies aim to increase aggregate supply and long-run economic growth
  • These policies focus on improving productivity, encouraging investment, and reducing regulatory burdens

Real-World Examples and Case Studies

• The Great Inflation of the 1970s in the United States was characterized by high inflation rates and slow economic growth
  • Factors contributing to this period included oil price shocks, expansionary monetary policy, and the breakdown of the Bretton Woods system
• The hyperinflation in Zimbabwe in the late 2000s was caused by excessive money printing to finance government spending
  • At its peak, Zimbabwe's monthly inflation rate reached 79.6 billion percent in November 2008
• The global financial crisis of 2007-2008 led to a significant increase in unemployment rates in many countries
  • In the United States, the unemployment rate rose from 4.6% in 2007 to a peak of 10% in October 2009
• Japan's "Lost Decade" in the 1990s was characterized by low inflation, high unemployment, and slow economic growth
  • This period followed the burst of an asset price bubble and was exacerbated by a banking crisis and ineffective policy responses
• The European sovereign debt crisis, which began in 2009, led to high unemployment rates in several countries, particularly Greece and Spain
  • Austerity measures implemented to address the crisis further contributed to rising unemployment and social unrest