When real interest rates differ across countries, financial capital flows toward the country with the higher real interest rate because investors seek better returns. This capital movement shows up simultaneously in three markets: the loanable funds market (supply of loanable funds increases in the receiving country), the foreign exchange market (demand for the receiving country's currency increases, causing appreciation), and the balance of payments (capital and financial account surplus). Central banks can influence domestic real interest rates in the short run through monetary policy, which in turn affects how much capital flows in or out.
- Real Interest Rate: The nominal interest rate adjusted for inflation. Investors compare real rates across countries when deciding where to place financial capital.
- Capital Flows Toward Higher Real Rates: If Country A's real interest rate rises above Country B's, financial capital flows from B to A. Country A sees a CFA surplus, currency appreciation, and an increase in loanable funds supply.
- Loanable Funds Market Effect: Capital inflows increase the supply of loanable funds in the receiving country, putting downward pressure on domestic real interest rates over time.
- Forex Market Effect: Capital inflows increase demand for the receiving country's currency, causing it to appreciate, which then reduces net exports.
- Central Bank Influence: Central banks can raise or lower short-run domestic interest rates through open market operations, directly affecting the size and direction of international capital flows.
If the European Central Bank raises real interest rates while the Fed holds rates steady, trace the effects on capital flows, the euro, and European net exports.
| Market | Effect of Capital Inflow (Higher Domestic Real Rate) | Graph Shift |
|---|
| Loanable Funds Market | Supply of loanable funds increases, real interest rate falls toward equilibrium | Supply curve shifts right |
| Foreign Exchange Market | Demand for domestic currency increases, currency appreciates | Demand curve shifts right |
| Balance of Payments (CFA) | Capital and financial account moves toward surplus | Net capital inflows increase |