What is AP Macroeconomics unit 6?
Unit 6 opens up the macroeconomic models from earlier units to the rest of the world. Every transaction a country makes with foreign buyers, sellers, or investors gets recorded in the balance of payments. The price at which currencies trade determines whether a country's goods look cheap or expensive abroad, and that price is set by supply and demand in the foreign exchange market just like any other market.
Unit 6 is about how open economies interact globally. It covers balance of payments accounting, exchange rate determination, what shifts currency supply and demand, how currency values affect net exports and aggregate demand, and how real interest rate differences move financial capital across borders.
Balance of Payments
Every international transaction is recorded as either a credit or a debit in the current account (CA) or the capital and financial account (CFA). The two accounts always sum to zero: CA + CFA = 0. A current account deficit means a capital and financial account surplus of equal size.
Foreign Exchange Market
The forex market sets the exchange rate through currency supply and demand. Demand for a currency comes from foreigners buying that country's goods, services, and assets. Supply comes from domestic residents buying foreign goods, services, and assets. Equilibrium is where those curves intersect.
Policy, Capital Flows, and Net Exports
Fiscal and monetary policy shift interest rates, which attract or repel financial capital, which shifts currency demand, which changes the exchange rate, which changes net exports and aggregate demand. This chain of effects connects Unit 6 directly to the AD-AS model from Unit 3.
Everything connects through the exchange rateThe exchange rate is the central variable in Unit 6. It is determined in the forex market, influenced by policy and interest rates, and it feeds back into net exports and aggregate demand. When a country's real interest rate rises, capital flows in, the currency appreciates, exports fall, and net exports decrease. That single chain of logic ties together every topic in the unit and is the most common multi-step reasoning task on the AP exam.
Unit 6 review notes
6.1
Balance of Payments Accounts
The balance of payments (BOP) is the accounting system that records all of a country's international transactions over a given period. It has two main components: the current account and the capital and financial account. Any transaction that brings money into a country is a credit; any transaction that sends money out is a debit. Because every transaction has two sides, the BOP always balances: CA + CFA = 0.
- Current Account (CA): Records net exports of goods and services, net income from abroad (primary income), and net unilateral transfers (secondary income). Can show a surplus or deficit.
- Capital and Financial Account (CFA): Records financial capital transfers and purchases and sales of assets between countries, including foreign direct investment and portfolio investment. A surplus means capital is flowing in; a deficit means capital is flowing out.
- CA + CFA = 0: The two accounts must sum to zero. A current account deficit is offset by a capital and financial account surplus of equal magnitude.
- Credit vs. Debit: A credit is any transaction that causes money to flow into the country (e.g., an export sale or a foreign purchase of domestic assets). A debit is any transaction that sends money out (e.g., an import purchase or a domestic purchase of foreign assets).
- Official Reserves Account: Part of the CFA that records changes in the central bank's foreign exchange reserves, used to track government intervention in currency markets.
If a country runs a current account deficit of $50 billion, what must be true about its capital and financial account?
| Account | What It Records | Surplus Means | Deficit Means |
|---|
| Current Account (CA) | Net exports, net income from abroad, net unilateral transfers | Exports exceed imports (net capital outflow) | Imports exceed exports (net capital inflow) |
| Capital and Financial Account (CFA) | Asset purchases/sales, FDI, portfolio investment, official reserves | Capital flowing into the country | Capital flowing out of the country |
6.2
Exchange Rates
An exchange rate is the price of one currency expressed in terms of another. Because every exchange rate compares two currencies, one currency appreciating always means the other is depreciating by the same proportion. You need to be able to convert between currency quotes and calculate the value of one currency in terms of another.
- Exchange Rate: The price of one currency in terms of another, set in the foreign exchange market. Example: 1 USD = 1.25 CAD means one U.S. dollar buys 1.25 Canadian dollars.
- Appreciation: A currency appreciates when it becomes more valuable relative to another currency. If 1 USD now buys 1.40 CAD instead of 1.25 CAD, the dollar has appreciated.
- Depreciation: A currency depreciates when it becomes less valuable relative to another currency. If 1 USD now buys only 1.10 CAD, the dollar has depreciated.
- Reciprocal Exchange Rate: If 1 USD = 1.25 CAD, then 1 CAD = 1/1.25 = 0.80 USD. You must be able to calculate the inverse quote.
If the exchange rate changes from 1 USD = 100 yen to 1 USD = 120 yen, has the dollar appreciated or depreciated? What happened to the yen?
| Currency Change | Effect on Exchange Rate Quote | Effect on the Other Currency |
|---|
| Dollar appreciates | Each dollar buys more foreign currency | Foreign currency depreciates |
| Dollar depreciates | Each dollar buys less foreign currency | Foreign currency appreciates |
6.3
The Foreign Exchange Market
The foreign exchange market works like any supply-and-demand model. The vertical axis shows the exchange rate (price of the domestic currency in terms of foreign currency) and the horizontal axis shows the quantity of the domestic currency traded. Demand slopes downward because a lower exchange rate makes domestic goods cheaper for foreigners, increasing demand for the currency. Supply slopes upward because a higher exchange rate makes foreign goods cheaper for domestic residents, increasing their purchases of foreign currency and thus the supply of domestic currency.
- Demand for a Currency: Comes from foreigners who want to buy that country's goods, services, and financial assets. Slopes downward: lower exchange rate means cheaper exports, so more currency is demanded.
- Supply of a Currency: Comes from domestic residents buying foreign goods, services, and assets. Slopes upward: higher exchange rate makes foreign goods relatively cheaper, so domestic residents supply more of their currency.
- Equilibrium Exchange Rate: The exchange rate at which quantity demanded equals quantity supplied. Above equilibrium there is a surplus of currency (excess supply); below equilibrium there is a shortage (excess demand).
- Surplus vs. Shortage: A surplus of currency means the exchange rate is above equilibrium and will fall. A shortage means the exchange rate is below equilibrium and will rise.
On a forex graph for U.S. dollars, what does the demand curve represent and why does it slope downward?
| Market Condition | Exchange Rate Position | Market Pressure |
|---|
| Surplus (excess supply) | Above equilibrium | Exchange rate falls toward equilibrium |
| Shortage (excess demand) | Below equilibrium | Exchange rate rises toward equilibrium |
| Equilibrium | At intersection of S and D | No pressure to change |
6.4
Policy and Economic Conditions in the Forex Market
The equilibrium exchange rate changes when something shifts the demand for or supply of a currency. Fiscal and monetary policy both feed into the forex market through their effects on income, prices, and especially interest rates. Higher domestic interest rates attract foreign capital, increasing demand for the domestic currency and causing it to appreciate. Expansionary fiscal policy raises income and may raise interest rates, while expansionary monetary policy lowers interest rates and tends to depreciate the currency.
- Demand Shifters: Factors that shift currency demand include changes in foreign income (affects demand for exports), changes in relative price levels, changes in domestic interest rates, and changes in preferences for domestic assets.
- Supply Shifters: Factors that shift currency supply include changes in domestic income (affects demand for imports), trade barriers like tariffs and quotas on foreign goods, and changes in preferences for foreign assets.
- Expansionary Monetary Policy: Lowers domestic interest rates, reduces demand for domestic assets from abroad, decreases demand for the currency, and causes depreciation.
- Contractionary Monetary Policy: Raises domestic interest rates, attracts foreign capital, increases demand for the currency, and causes appreciation.
- Expansionary Fiscal Policy: Can raise domestic interest rates (crowding out), attracting capital inflows, increasing currency demand, and causing appreciation.
If the Federal Reserve raises interest rates, trace the effect through the forex market to the exchange rate.
| Policy | Effect on Interest Rates | Effect on Currency Demand | Exchange Rate Effect |
|---|
| Expansionary Monetary Policy | Decreases | Decreases (less attractive to foreign investors) | Depreciates |
| Contractionary Monetary Policy | Increases | Increases (more attractive to foreign investors) | Appreciates |
| Expansionary Fiscal Policy | May increase (crowding out) | Increases | Appreciates |
| Tariff on imports | No direct effect | Increases (less supply of domestic currency) | Appreciates |
6.5
Exchange Rate Changes and Net Exports
Once the exchange rate changes, it directly affects the relative prices of a country's exports and imports, which changes net exports (NX), which shifts aggregate demand. This is the link between the forex market and the AD-AS model. Appreciation makes exports more expensive for foreigners and imports cheaper for domestic consumers, so NX falls and AD shifts left. Depreciation does the opposite.
- Appreciation and Net Exports: When a currency appreciates, exports become more expensive for foreign buyers and imports become cheaper domestically. Exports fall, imports rise, net exports decrease, and aggregate demand shifts left.
- Depreciation and Net Exports: When a currency depreciates, exports become cheaper for foreign buyers and imports become more expensive domestically. Exports rise, imports fall, net exports increase, and aggregate demand shifts right.
- Net Exports (NX): NX = Exports minus Imports. A positive NX is a trade surplus; a negative NX is a trade deficit. Changes in the exchange rate are a key driver of NX changes.
If the U.S. dollar depreciates against the euro, what happens to U.S. exports to Europe, U.S. imports from Europe, and U.S. aggregate demand?
| Currency Change | Effect on Exports | Effect on Imports | Effect on NX | Effect on AD |
|---|
| Appreciation | Decrease (more expensive abroad) | Increase (cheaper domestically) | Decreases | Shifts left |
| Depreciation | Increase (cheaper abroad) | Decrease (more expensive domestically) | Increases | Shifts right |
6.6
Real Interest Rates and International Capital Flows
When real interest rates differ across countries, financial capital flows toward the country with the higher real interest rate because investors seek better returns. This capital movement shows up simultaneously in three markets: the loanable funds market (supply of loanable funds increases in the receiving country), the foreign exchange market (demand for the receiving country's currency increases, causing appreciation), and the balance of payments (capital and financial account surplus). Central banks can influence domestic real interest rates in the short run through monetary policy, which in turn affects how much capital flows in or out.
- Real Interest Rate: The nominal interest rate adjusted for inflation. Investors compare real rates across countries when deciding where to place financial capital.
- Capital Flows Toward Higher Real Rates: If Country A's real interest rate rises above Country B's, financial capital flows from B to A. Country A sees a CFA surplus, currency appreciation, and an increase in loanable funds supply.
- Loanable Funds Market Effect: Capital inflows increase the supply of loanable funds in the receiving country, putting downward pressure on domestic real interest rates over time.
- Forex Market Effect: Capital inflows increase demand for the receiving country's currency, causing it to appreciate, which then reduces net exports.
- Central Bank Influence: Central banks can raise or lower short-run domestic interest rates through open market operations, directly affecting the size and direction of international capital flows.
If the European Central Bank raises real interest rates while the Fed holds rates steady, trace the effects on capital flows, the euro, and European net exports.
| Market | Effect of Capital Inflow (Higher Domestic Real Rate) | Graph Shift |
|---|
| Loanable Funds Market | Supply of loanable funds increases, real interest rate falls toward equilibrium | Supply curve shifts right |
| Foreign Exchange Market | Demand for domestic currency increases, currency appreciates | Demand curve shifts right |
| Balance of Payments (CFA) | Capital and financial account moves toward surplus | Net capital inflows increase |
Practice AP Macroeconomics unit 6 questions
Try AP-style multiple-choice questions and written prompts after you review the notes.
QuestionCountry Y has a significantly higher real interest rate than its trading partners, but the government simultaneously imposes strict taxes on foreign investment income. Compared to a market without these taxes, how will financial capital inflows differ?
Capital inflows will be smaller than in a free market.
Capital inflows will be larger than in a free market because the high real interest rate attracts foreign investors despite the tax.
Capital inflows will remain unchanged because the high real interest rate exactly offsets the tax burden on foreign investors.
Capital inflows will be smaller than in a free market, but capital outflows will increase simultaneously due to the tax creating incentives to move capital elsewhere.
QuestionThe central bank raises the interest rate from 2% to 5%. The resulting capital inflow causes the exchange rate to appreciate by 10%. This calculated appreciation creates which conflict with the expansionary goal of net exports?
It reduces net exports and decreases aggregate demand
It increases net exports and increases aggregate demand
It reduces net exports and increases aggregate supply
It increases net exports and decreases aggregate supply
1. Assume that the economy of Zymovia is currently operating below full employment.
The currency of Zymovia is the Zymovian dollar (ZMD).
Zymovia has a flexible exchange rate system.
The government of Zymovia currently has a balanced budget.
Zymovia's capital and financial account (CFA) balance is initially zero.
Table 1: Economic Data for Zymovia
Economic Indicator | Value |
|---|
Current Unemployment Rate | 8% |
Natural Rate of Unemployment | 5% |
Current Inflation Rate | 2% |
Expected Inflation Rate | 2% |
i. Identify one specific fiscal policy action the government could take.
ii. Explain how the fiscal policy action identified in part (B)(i) will affect aggregate demand and restore full employment.
2. The table below provides economic data for Country A and Country B. The two countries are trading partners with open economies and flexible exchange rates.
Economic Data for Country A and Country B
Country | Real Interest Rate | Inflation Rate |
|---|
Country A | 4% | 2% |
Country B | 2% | 5% |
3. The economy of Arland is currently in a recession. The currency of Arland is the peso, and the currency of its trading partner, Beland, is the dollar. Assume that the capital and financial account is initially balanced.
Arland is in a recession.
Arland's currency is the peso.
Beland's currency is the dollar.
i. The initial equilibrium exchange rate, labeled ER1
ii. The effect of the change in the real interest rate on the equilibrium exchange rate, labeled ER2